Wow, even 100 ish accepted is still pretty low. Definitely expecting a rejection in RD. Do you know if they waitlist deferred people?
Nope, they donāt waitlist deferred applicants
Actually they do. One of my sonās suitemateās was deferred SCEA, waited listed RD and then got off the WL. A deferred candidate is not going to be treated less favorably than a regular RD candidate.
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Thatās oddā¦ that means the applicant was strong enough to be deferred in the SCEA round but not strong enough to be admitted then, and its repeated, strong enough to be on the waitlist but not strong enough to be selected in the RD roundā¦ somehow it makes sense and it also doesnāt at the same time 
The classic borderline case.
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As I like to point out, your odds of getting accepted unhooked by Yale are really low, until you actually get accepted or a likely letter.
So, yes, your odds are bad as an REA applicant. And as a deferred applicant. And as a RD applicant. It is all bad odds!
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Iāve mentioned before that for whatever reason our SCOIR database doesnāt include Yale.
But I popped open Harvard, and sure enough there was an REA deferred to waitlisted (outcome unknown).
The overall REA stats for Harvard were 14 total applications, 4 accepted, 6 deferred then denied, and then 4 unknown outcomes (one just deferred, two just waitlisted, and then finally the deferred-waitlisted).
I note the deferred to waitlisted kid had a solid test score (1560), but their GPA was just a slight notch lower than the lowest acceptanceāthat was a 1570 with a 4.076 (out of 4.33), and the 1560 had a 4.05. The other three accepted were 4.138/1590/36, 4.189/1570/35, and 4.204/1530. Any 4.2x is really, really good for us, although there was a 4.24/1590/36 who got deferred then denied . . . not sure what they did to deserve that! There was also a 4.102/35 deferred-denied.
Anyway, I am not loving all the deferred-denieds, but realistically four of the six were pretty far outside the GPA/test box that contained the admits. Inside that box, the results were solidābut it happened to be right away.
All this may seem of limited value, but it is interesting to me that I happen to know that people like the kid with the Morehead-Cain offer were actually inside the observable admit box for Harvard, and I would bet Yale if I had the data. He could still get denied, but I do wonder if he has an unusually strong chance as a deferred within that box. Indeed, I wonder if deferred-admits might be a little more common with Yale (which defers a lot less people than Harvard).
All of which is leading up to the rather unremarkable hypothesis that if you are coming from a HS like ours, maybe your odds of being deferred-admitted are better if you have really good numbers, and borderline numbers might get you waitlisted.
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Or maybe a kid who filled some niche institutional need, and when Yale failed to yield any other candidate who had that trait, they turned to an applicant on the waitlist.
To use the clichĆ©, maybe they admitted three tuba players, but all three went elsewhere, making the waitlist candidate more compelling. I donāt think that scenario represents a borderline candidate so much as a coincidental over-abundance of potential tuba players in a given year.
Iām hooked, would that help a bit in RD?
Yes, most likely a combination of both for those who get in off the waitlist. They definitely were not rank stacked in one big pile but were probably ranked in buckets and moved to the offer list if yields were below expectation for that bucket. But at one time (SCEA and RD), they were adjudged borderline (on the wrong side) for that bucket(s).
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Couldnāt hurt! I assume you donāt mean you are a recruited athlete (I think that ship has likely sailed).
Not sure what your hook is, so this may not apply to you, but I think for some schools, in the case of a simple legacy hook (with no major financial gifts associated), a deferral rather than rejection in SCEA/REA/ED may be how the hook āhelps.ā (though sometimes an applicant may actually wish to have gotten the rejection in the early round rather than getting hopes up with a deferral only to get that rejection in RD). I have no idea whether this applies to any Yale deferrals, though.
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I am not aware of a āhookā being treated differently between SCEA and RD. Some schools historically required legacies to apply early to benefit from their legacy hook. Yale never had that policy. If you are low SES, FGLI, from āsparse countryā, child of faculty, (potential) mega donor or someone famous/powerful, or a legacy that will still be considered in RD.
What do you consider is your hook? Sometimes people assume something is a āhookā when it is not.
Rural area, URM, FGLI was what I meant.
URM is no longer a legal consideration. The other 2 would be considered.
I wrote about my heritage in my essays, do you not think they would look at those essays and factor that in still especially since they want to create a diverse class?
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Yes, in the context of how your race affected your experience as permitted by SCOTUS.
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