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<p>In-state? It’s pretty predictable already who will get in - I haven’t really seen a surprising or inconsistent UVa decision (I’m not saying it’s a science, I’m just saying it’s usually pretty clear where your chances stand IS). Some more “marginal” candidates do apply ED, but this is also true of RD obviously. I was not surprised by my class’s ED results. Among the students that got in, two of my best friends have never gotten below an A in high school and have around a 1400 or higher. They both chose UVa and since the option to apply ED was there, they did it. Sure, people like this won’t have the choice next year. Okay. But the thing is, I’m certain these two people would have chosen UVa anyway. They were pretty much certain to get in (they had great ECs and are good writers - I saw the essays and they were fabulous). They might have shot an application off to Tech also, but they pretty much could have counted on UVa. </p>
<p>The other kids who got in were basically matches for UVa also. Who didn’t apply ED? Most of the top of the class that was hoping for an Ivy/MIT admit. All got deferred (I’m talking about non-athletes). If you hadn’t completely reconciled the idea of not even trying for elsewhere, at the top, people don’t apply ED because they know barring something bizarre they’re going to have to commit to UVa. These kids will mainly end up at UVa for various reasons anyway, I’ve known kids to take the UVa over Ivies even (obviously they were admitted RD in that case). </p>
<p>I have noticed that some UVa ED applicants at my school are doing what I’ve seen called the “Hail Mary” application - it’s a super-reach. But they don’t get in. I feel like the marginal applicants are typically deferred unless they connect with the school in some way (fulfilling a niche). They may get admitted in the spring. ED does give an edge IMO, if only because the UVa admissions office is relatively small and they obviously have way less applications to read in the early round. I am NOT saying that RD applicants don’t get a fair read. Like I said, I find the results from UVa extremely consistent. However there are always going to be people on the edge who need to connect with an adcom as a tip factor and I think that the less frenzied atmosphere of the early round could help here, since the officer is only human.</p>