Chance Me: VA resident, 4.0 UW, 1520 SAT, 1520 PSAT, mechanical engineering

Chance Me / Match Me
1

Demographics
US Citizen, VA Resident, Male
Top magnet school in the state
Middle class (100k-200k)
NPC for most privates say 40k-50k

Major: Mechanical Engineering

Stats
School doesnt do class rank

  • 4.0 UW

  • 4.5 W
    where 4.0 is normal classes, 4.5 is honors, 5.0 is APs and post-AP/duel enrollment

  • SAT: 1520 (plan to retake or take ACT)

  • PSAT: 1520

Courses

  • English: honors for 9, 10, 11, AP Lang next yr
  • Math: up to Calc BC, Multivar/Linear next yr
  • Science: AP Bio 5, Chem HN, Physics C Mech & E&M, AP CS A 5
  • History and social studies: World hist, APUSH, AP Gov next yr
  • Language other than English: AP French 5
  • Other academic courses: Other advanced CS and tech courses offered by school

Awards

  • #7 for an engineering event at science olympiad nats
  • 3 state medals in science olympiad
  • All District Track and Field 2x
  • national merit finalist most likely

Extracurriculars

  • 4 yrs Varsity XC and Track, captain
  • 4 yrs Science Olympiad, officer
  • 3 yrs rocketry club (ARC, NASA student launch)
  • Geography/Geospatial research internship at local uni, presented poster major conference
  • Founded local volunteer STEM outreach program
  • Sunday language school (not French) since pre-K

Essays
Essays in progress, LORs should be decent from teachers I know well

Schools
|Cornell|Reach|
|CMU|Reach|
|UVA|Match|
|Johns Hopkins|Reach|
|Georgia Tech|Reach|
|Stanford|Dream|
|Virginia Tech|Likely|
|UIUC|Likely|
|Princeton|Reach|
|Michigan|Match|
|Duke|Reach|
|Purdue|Likely|
|UT Austin|Likely|
|UMD|Likely|
|Cal Tech|Reach|
|Pitt|Likely|

Please chance me for these schools and let me know if I miscategorized any, or what schools I can remove from the list.

2

I think your grouping are ok but a bit optimistic.

But I think UIUC is a reach and Michigan a super reach. But both could happen. UT Austin is also a super reach.

More important is budget - if the $40-50k is firm, lose U Michigan ($80k-ish), UT Austin and UIUC. UMD is highly unlikely at that price as is Pitt. There’s nothing worse than an acceptance you can’t afford.

So my first comment would be budget - how much can your parents afford ? How much are they willing to afford ?

If it’s the $50k you mentioned - your list doesn’t work.

Now if you are NMF, consider a school like Alabama. If you are not NMF, with automerit you are $20k per. With NMF, you get 5 years tuition, 4 years housing plus $4k per year scholarship. Think about that - and you’ll likely end up in a similar job.

There are others too, not quite as generous. Or Tulsa which is a full ride.

Given your major, the where likely matters little. My son turned down Purdue for Bama (just based on his preference) and interned with Ga Tech kids and works with Michigan, Purdue, and more etc.

So if you wanted other subs under $50k (potentially), look at Ohio State, Arizona / Arizona State, SUNY Schools, UGA, UTK, Michigan State, UMN and others.

But first thing first - ensure what you can pay and align your list to that figure.

And if you are NMF, consider what saving your family hundreds of thousands can do for them, especially given that in your major, short of maybe a few schools pedigree is unlikely to matter.

Good luck.

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3

At this Virginia magnet you’re in good shape for all but the top 20 schools. Im also in Northern Virginia so I have a pretty good idea of where your student will place. But those magnet kids do very well!

A male student focused on STEM definitely suffers in admissions.

The key to stand out will be your essays. Do what you can to have good essays since your child needs to stand out from the mass of STEM TJ applicants. That magnet school also has about 100 NMF, so it’s not standout for that population. Europe may treat you better since they look only at academic performance.

Great achievement and you’ll find college STEM a reasonable workload!

4

For your major, and being OOS, some of your schools are mischaracterized - UMD, UIUC, Purdue, UT are much more competitive than the overall acceptance rate indicates. Michigan and UT should be moved into the reach category for sure. All of these flagships are T20 for your major.

Make sure to meet the EA deadlines for all the schools that offer it, and apply to Pitt as soon as the application cycle opens since they have rolling admission.

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5

Is this range affordable for your family? I agree with tsbna44 that we need to know your budget to be most helpful. Your budget is going to drive your list.

Since it’s highly likely you will be NMF, do any of the schools with large NMF scholarships appeal to you? Alabama and Tulsa as tsbna noted but more here: Big merit NMF/NMSF schools and their specialties

For categorization I also think you are a bit optimistic even considering the school you are at. But, I defer to your HS counselor for the best categorization, and I expect your school uses a program with scattergrams like Naviance/Scoir/etc, so use that tool as well.

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6

Michigan is a reach, in my opinion.

And UMD is only likely if you apply in the EA round where that college accepts the vast majority of its incoming freshman class.

Do your parents have college savings for you, or are they anticipating paying $40k to $50k out of current income? If their income is in the range you quoted here, that is a large percentage of their take home pay.

I would suggest you discuss your annual college budget with your family. The amount they can pay annually is actually more important than any other dollar amount.

Do you want additional suggestions of colleges?

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7

Apply early to both of these colleges. You are a strong student and might get merit aid at both.

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8

Plug your list of schools into the following template. Would you be happy attending your extremely likely schools?

  • Assured (100% chance of admission and affordability):
  • Extremely Likely:
  • Likely:
  • Toss-up:
  • Unlikely:
  • Very Unlikely:
9

The chances of receiving sufficient merit aid from UMD to get its COA under $50k are quite low.

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10

UMD scholarship potential is not high…but it’s possible.

Just make sure you adhere to the EA guidelines.

11

I noted this of UMD and Pitt - not impossible but not likely.

The alternatives area wise that would likely be affordable are Delaware and would be affordable is WVU. If the student wanted an urban school like Pitt, it’s larger but UMN should work with merit. UT Chattanooga on a smaller city level.

While I can’t imagine Va Tech not being likely, I know this year’s thread showed really tough #s for in state.

Bottom line, if the budget limit is $50K, then OP needs to re-arrange.

Given that # was given for privates that are super reaches, if the student didn’t want to dial down that private list, they’d have to add some such as RPI (maybe), RHIT (maybe), Clarkson (highly likely) and others - to hit budget. My maybe/highly likely refer to $50K. All would be admissions.

Yesterday someone published an article about Syracuse - they weren’t giving money but at the very very end, if you waited, they came out with crazy merit - so that could be a long path possibility for one willing not to commit to somewhere - to see what happens.

NYT: Why Did Syracuse Offer $200,000 Deals to Teens Who Had Turned It Down? - Colleges & Universities / Syracuse University - College Confidential Forums

12

Is $40-50k actually affordable to you and your parents?

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13

You need to find out what your parents are comfortable paying for university. One obvious question involves whether what you are seeing in NPC results corresponds to an amount that your parents feel that they can afford to pay without taking on debt.

UVA and VT are very good universities. Mechanical engineering is an area where people care about whether the stuff that you design breaks or falls down, and whether you are reasonable to work with. Where you got your bachelor’s degree is way, way less important. MIT and Stanford graduates routinely work alongside U.Mass and UVA graduates and in most cases no one cares where you got your degree, as long as you graduated from an ABET accredited university (which I am pretty sure UVA and VT are for ME).

I expect that some of the out of state public universities on your list are likely to be unaffordable, and I do not see the advantage over UVA and VT. However, I am not familiar with the impact of being a national merit finalist, and this might change the affordability issue at some universities.

UT Austin is not likely for admissions, and is probably even less likely for the combination of admissions plus affordability. I think that I would say the same for UIUC and Michigan.

And I think that you are doing very well, are competitive at any university that you apply to, and have great in-state public options. I do not know whether your in-state public options are safeties, but hopefully your guidance counselor would have a good idea.

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14

Thank you guys for the input!
I will reclassify my picks later, but here are my thoughts:

I put Purdue as Likely seeing as a lot of people from my school get in for engineering with worse stats :man_shrugging:. I think the acceptance for my school is atound 50% (we can also see a graph of who gets in and who doesn’t from our school based on GPA and SAT scores). An anecdote is my sister, who got into both Purdue and UIUC with a lower GPA and fewer academic ECs. She attends Purdue, which is cheaper and actually comparable to UVA pricing.

I would be very glad to attend either UVA or VT, but as someone mentioned, in state admissions have gotten tough, especially for Northern Virginia and my school in particular.

I plan to EA everywhere I can, and for UMD or Pitt, am hoping for scholarships to cut down the cost, making them harder as viable options. Michigan is in the same boat, but I was considering applying due the the Bell scholarship that gives up to $80k a year for VA residents attending U mich. I forgot to mention that my Dad’s job will pay for 20k of tuition, so a 45k cost of attendance listed on the NPC would be closer to 20k with that and some scholarships hopefully. Considering this, is EDing Cornell or CMU a bad choice if they could screw up my financial aid package?

One thing is, the NPC considers that my sister is attending college during my Freshman year, but once she graduates, tuition for privates may rise up to 10k. I guess my parents wont have to pay for her tuition though. We have savings but I don’t actually know what % will come from income and what will come from savings.

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15

I can see Purdue for sure - and it has a 45% admit rate for engineering. I don’t question likely there.

In the end, one needs an assured admit. Just one - that they’ve be happy to attend ??

What’s yours ?

As for the NPCs if you are getting $20k from your dad’s employer to the schools, your need will go down equally. So who says $40-50k will actually be $60-70k.

Cornell ED - can you afford it ? There’s no merit.

The NMF is the golden ticket - you should look more into that - to at least ensure you covered bases.

Good luck.

16

I will probably hold off on ED simply due to financial restrictions…

Updated list:
Likely
Virginia Tech
UIUC
Purdue
UMD
Pitt

Toss-up
UVA
UT Austin

Unlikely
Cornell
CMU
Johns Hopkins
Georgia Tech
Princeton
UMich
Duke
Highly unlikely
Stanford
Cal Tech

Am I applying to too many reach schools, or is this fine?

What worries me are the state schools. If I somehow don’t get into UVA or VT (which is definitely possible), I don’t know what I’ll be able to 100% afford.

Does anyone have suggestions for an assured admit school that would fit my profile and not break the bank?

17

Yes I labeled some above. Your thought process is correct. You need one assured and affordable admit. After that, apply where you want but schools you can’t afford - even with $20k like Michigan - is wasting time in applying.

Given MechE, where you go matters little.

The obvious is, if NMF, Alabama. 5 years free tuition, four years housing and a free $4k per year.

If you spent $25k total over four years, it’d be a lot.

If not NMF, you are $30.5k off so $20k ish a year. It’s assured, it’s affordable and it’s fine.

If you want smaller and have aero industry interest, UAH.

You’ll have access to many of the same jobs as you will at Purdue. You need ABET. Read my response above for more affordable admits - there are tons. And I listed some.

Message #2 above gives you ideas. And message 11 even more.

18

If they end up admitting you with a financial aid package that is significantly worse than the NPC (as long as you ran the NPC in good faith with accurate financial data), this would be a legitimate reason to back out of ED.

However, you should not ED anywhere unless it is your clear first choice.

19

If you’re receiving outside scholarships like you mention, the financial aid can be reduced by that amount.

I don’t see Purdue and UIUC as likelies for OOS MechE. Both are very competitive. Will they fit your budget as you won’t receive financial aid at either?

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20

I wouldn’t use your sister as a benchmark because female applicants had an advantage for many years.

UMich will be very expensive—be careful of schools with high off campus housing costs like UMich. UMich merit money is pretty rare.

Getting a lot of credits transferred in can cut your costs greatly if you graduate early. Many private schools limit the amount of transferable credits and therefore raise the cost of attendance. My kid at UMich however takes a lot of Nova CC classes to get though intro classes, as UMich transfer credits clear and known in advance by the student. UMich is not too friendly to AP credits. That way we spend $800 on a class that costs $10k at UMich like Econ 101. It’s some work but do look at the transfer credit policy of the college. And bless Nova CC for its numerous and respected classes.

(We did get a message that the math department may reduce transfer credits soon.)

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