Why no CA schools on your list? UCLA and a few others seem like a no brainer.
I always felt that ED should be used on your dream school. Not to play the odds game. But to each their own.
Look at the direct admit business schools like Pitt vs secondary admission schools. Why go through a secondary admission process when you have a guaranteed spot. Penn State Smeal is going to direct admit.
Fordham Gabelli could be a great landing spot. NYC and a great business program. Good luck.