The definition of a “crapshoot:”
“A risky or uncertain matter.”
It DOES NOT mean that you have “no control” as you say.
It means that predicting admission to a T20 is…“A Risky or Uncertain Matter.” Which it is.
And no one has been insulted.
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It looks random from the outside, but it is not random from the inside. Outsiders do not know about such things as essays and recommendations that insiders see and use in their admission decisions. Nor do outsiders know about what priorities the school tells insiders to weight more.
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Historical thread. The admission committees and their hardworking teams could find such terms as “crapshoot” insulting. JMO. Not open for debate.
Of course a student who is WL to UNC or deferred at UChicago may get into a school such as Columbia…but keep in mind that these schools are highly rejective and most are not accepted.
This poster was giving their opinion based on their observations, and what they said is likely true more often than not.
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Please move on from debating the definition of a “crapshoot” and get back to chancing the OP. Thank you!
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Makes sense. Are there any other trends anyone as seen? What I mean by this is an applicant getting into XYZ also getting into ABC. Or perhaps waitlists/deferrals
You sound incredibly stressed. It also sounds like you are trying to have some kind of control/answers to this process, and you can’t. None of us can.
Your son has 3 wonderful acceptances so far. That needs to be celebrated.
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Congratulations to your son. Very very impressive achievements.
I suspect he will get some acceptances.
He will be a strong candidate at every school.
There is a certain degree of randomness and just the unknowable.
Individually, at any given T20 school, his chances may be under 50%.
I’d look at it this way… at T5 schools, like Harvard and Yale… Almost nobody has a better than 10% chance (and most have a much lower chance).
Move to the lower part of that top tier… Cornell, Tufts, etc… A top candidate like your son has a much better shot… probably over 25-30%.
It’s likely that come April, he will have several great acceptances to choose from — especially as he already has some.
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The admissions process now is completely different from the admissions process in 2005. It is as relevant as my college process in the 1990s, when I got into multiple Ivies. No anecdotes pre-covid can be used in 2025.
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Absolutely. I am stressed because he is stressed. This whole process is such a nightmare and having teens go through this is just insane to me
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Just happened to pull up an old post on this topic. Point being- This is not a predictable process to any applicant, except for the auto admit schools and ones with very high acceptance rates.
In case anyone thought her message was unclear, she wasn’t giving a suggestion to ignore; don’t respond to anyone other than the OP if the comment is unrelated to chancing. The OP is free to reply to anyone
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College admissions can be stressful, and every student and parent can react differently. CC is a great place for parents to come and vent about the process, that way the kid doesn’t see the parent’s stress.
Whatever you can do to support your student and lessen their stress thru the process is great. I do hope he’s celebrated his acceptances and can forget about the forthcoming decisions, at least for large parts of the day. He very well might get more acceptances, and is highly likely to receive more denials/waitlists…that goes with the territory when applying to reaches. Do what you can to help him be prepared for those decisions. Good luck to you both.
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This is great! It means that there is a lot to like about his acceptances. That would be my focus.
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OP- for the vast majority of HS kids, the application process isn’t stressful. They have a firm budget, their choices are dictated by that budget, they understand there will be trade-offs required just like everything else in life. The close to home option doesn’t have “international business” as a major, so they major in business and minor in Mandarin. The far away option will only allow them to come home for Christmas and at the end of the semester due to travel costs- so that’s a decision they need to wrestle with.
The rest is gravy. It’s really within your power to dial down the stress level starting right this minute. Once your kid has been admitted to a college which you can afford without selling an organ, the CHOICE to be stressed is yours to make. Applaud the admissions, remind your kid that there is no single optimal school, perfect major, even a great education will come with trade-offs whether academic or social or athletic-- and encourage him to enjoy the rest of his childhood living at home with you as his cheerleader.
Do not buy in to the stress/dream school/OMG his life will be over if XYZ doesn’t happen. You know intuitively that none of this is true, so help him navigate the next few weeks!
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Hugs to you. It is so hard; I remember it well. No one can tell what will happen but he’s already into a top school with Michigan! Tips to lower the stress and increase perspective:
-Have him dig into the schools that have accepted him and pick a favorite.
-You said he wants to attend a top school: many top kids want to and he can with Michigan. It is excellent for everything he wants to pursue. Many top kids we know attend Michigan OOS and love it. If that’s his favorite, dive in to everything they offer and start getting excited and imagining himself there.
-If you can swing it, go visit for an admitted students day.
-Spend much less time on the rest of the list: have him name one thing he does not like about each school left, and one thing he is excited about. All schools have flaws.
-Most of the rest will reject or WL him, because most of the rest are reach-for-everyone ivy types. That is the nature of applying to these schools. He may get lucky and get in to one of the reachier ones, and I would be surprised if he does not get at least two of the five or six less-reachy ones left. Best of luck.
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this! Kid has AMAZING choices already - everything else is sprinkles.
Also, people aiming and deeply desiring T20s have an ENTIRELY different experience IME and saying “applying today is awful for teens” is a bit overstated. I have so many friends with younger kids freaking out, I calm them down.
Mine applied to schools in ~50-130 range (US news, FWIW) and got in everywhere but 1 (the highest rank). Kid was TO, middle-range GPA student at their LPS and often applying engineering (so hard major) They didn’t spend THAT much time on essays - adapting most of supplementals multiple times.
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Be careful- the stress will not stop after senior year. I really do feel for you and your son.
Premed is tough and everybody wants the A.
Your son may want a certain position…on or off campus….and he may have to endure weeks of interviews with incredible students seeking the same position. This is stressful.
Lots of tests, applications, positions, relationships with profs to establish, friends etc….
Try and take a deep breath (it’s hard) and make sure he knows how amazing he is, regardless of where he goes to college.
Managing stress and anxiety is an important lifelong skill.
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I agree with everyone who has encouraged the de-escalation in the process. Ultimately, he chose an extremely top-heavy list. To expect anything other than a number of deny’s and deferrals is unrealistic. I see it every year, with top kids despondent that they didn’t get into their dream (i.e. lottery ticket) school. What people fail to grasp is that while the student may match the profile of an admitted student, they also match the profile of a denied student.
The stress will not stop and this is your opportunity - while he is home - to teach him stress management skills. Put down the laptop and phone and go for a walk. What are his stress management skills? (and what are yours?)
If he is ultimately thinking grad school, then this is going to be a long haul. celebrate him and his successes now!
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Thank you all for the advice and tips. I feel a lot better after reading these. Rejection is expected, anything else is a nice surprise. I know that he will thrive wherever he attends and our current options are already fantastic. These next few weeks will be tough, but he WILL be alright and I know this
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