Coronavirus in the US

No, I was getting exactly the same care. I worked for a German company and my care was covered exactly the same way as everyone else’s.

Even if the sequence of the viral genome (RNA) has been disseminated 5 weeks ago, it still takes time to develop a working test that passes the muster of a medical diagnostic test. Primer and other reagent concentrations and PCR parameters need to be optimized and even tailored to a particular instrument. We can’t just grab any witches’ brew and start using it to test patients, the consequences of that could be dire.

Folks are so used to instant everything- like an app being developed overnight. This is not an app. This stuff takes a lab coat and a lot of dirty work. No wonder kids do not want to go into science anymore, and VCs pour trillions into AI and gizmos and avoid “unpredictable” biotech. Can’t win.

^^^^I guess all the other countries that are testing consistently must be just lucky.

How do you know that they are testing consistently? What are their tests PPV, NPV, specificity, sensitivity, etc.? What are their testing criteria? Remember the false positive test of a US passenger by one such “top” test protocol?

Santa Clara County already had a case, from a returnee from Wuhan. I would venture to guess that this woman will be linked to that case. Just a guess.

Speaking of Italy, they have decided to stop testing the masses and only test at-risk folks with symptoms. (just like the US)

As an aside, my D got exposure to PCR testing in her college Bio class. When she attended a SERP at a top 15 med research program, she ended up running cultures for the doctoral students who had no idea on how to.

To me, the larger risk is a false negative – release someone from the hospital early when they might be carrier.

Google banning employee travel to two districts in Italy (Lombardy & Veneto). Also banned employee travel to Iran, Japan, & South Korea.

“As an aside, my D got exposure to PCR testing in her college Bio class. When she attended a SERP at a top 15 med research program, she ended up running cultures for the doctoral students who had no idea on how to…”

@bluebayou - good for your daughter. Just want to point out that de novo test development is quite different. A set of reagents is made and tested for performance. If the reagents do not work, new sets need to be made and tested. It is an iterative process. Remaking of the reagents takes time and some stinky chemistry. Here is one example of an instrument involved to make “ologos” (primers and probes) :

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GmR2UWJbGzs

Just got an email blast from the major’s office of my town reassuring residents that the health department is on top of things and monitoring the situation. They also told people to stay home if they are sick with anything, and encouraged frequent hand washing.

Got the same emails from our healthcare providers telling people to practice good hygiene and, if sick, to call in first.

^^thanks BB. Even tho she’s gone into a different direction for her PhD, she still keeps a lengthly SERP description on her CV bcos she says, as you note, it shows experience with stinky slow iterative research.

(now back to our regular programming, about testing or lack thereof…)

@FourAtShore - from the WaPo article:

I really don’t get that statement. We are all one big population. We know that this virus can be spread by asymptomatic people and produces mild symptoms in many. We know that appropriate precautions were not taken in processing the evacuees at Travis AFB. (see https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html)

It’s a virus. So it got spread all over the place when some of the workers from the AFB went home, and went about their business, going grocery shopping, to movie theaters, to the gym, etc. Maybe the woman in Santa Clara county caught it from some stranger in the checkout line at the supermarket, who had picked it from someone on the commuter train to San Francisco, who in turn had gotten it from some restaurant patron at the next table, who happened to be the brother of one of those AFB workers who lives in Fairfield but came into the city to attend an event.

I think there is good news and bad news. The good news is that because the virus so mild as to be undetected in many people, the reported death rate among infected is probably a lot smaller than what is being reported. That is, the numbers don’t include all the people who or have been are infected without being aware of it. And that also means that a lot of people have already been exposed unknowingly and likely developed immunity.

The bad news is that given that so many people are walking around carrying the virus, it has already spread far beyond the reported cases, and it does put more susceptible people at risk. There will be a lot more deaths before the virus runs its course. But it will definitely run its course over time.

I think its too late for quarantines to be effective. So closing schools or curtailing travel isn’t going to make much of a difference. I think the most important thing would be for health care providers to have a readily available test and to be able to routinely test all patients who present with symptoms of a respiratory virus. Not to try to identify carriers – again, I think that’s too late. But to get the best treatment for those who are sick enough to be showing up at the doctor’s office.

The little kids who don’t get seriously ill with this particular virus are disease vectors. I think this is already being spread at day care centers and playgrounds – it’s just that neither the children nor their youthful caretakers has a clue that anyone is sick.

As per family member who works with business contacts in Singapore…

Families strip out of their clothing before entering the living portion of the house and disinfect the shoes.

Temperatures are taken every two hours in schools.

Offices and businesses have only one entrance. Everyone gets reviewed and has their temp taken.

If you are put under quarantine, a monitor calls every few hours to make sure you are actually at home (or where you are required to be)

On another note… for those infected on the Diamond Princess I wonder if there is any data correlating cabin type to infection rate. If one were locked in an interior cabin for 14 days with only 90 minutes of daylight it’s not a leap to expect the immune system to tank. Also, no fresh air exchange - only the recycled stuff for 22 1/2 hours a day.

Very sadly, no it’s not! (Says the wife of a man in the travel industry)

“The little kids who don’t get seriously ill with this particular virus are disease vectors. I think this is already being spread at day care centers and playgrounds – it’s just that neither the children nor their youthful caretakers has a clue that anyone is sick.”

Well, where does that leave school employees who are NOT youthful caretakers??? I’m certainly not falling into that camp (50+ here)

Any advice???

We just rescheduled our spring break travel plans to summer. Not so much out of concern of flying, but we sure as heck didn’t want to end up in some sort of quarantine situation on the other side of the country when the trip was purely for fun. (I am incredibly thankful that we booked through SW, though. It might have been a harder decision, otherwise.)

I suspect we aren’t the only family changing plans. I have wondered how much this is impacting the tourist industry.

@thumper1 my mom just left for Florida today and is spending a week down there. She’s immune compromised too and it never occurred to her to change her plans.

Obviously I’m not going to any conferences or anything right now but if I was, I wouldn’t be reconsidering.

I’d consider ordering some things to avoid the exposure that comes with shopping, but how long does the virus remain stable on a cardboard box?