This isn’t good at all. Adding in the tests for antibodies - which has a much higher amount of negative results than the test for the virus - makes it look like percent of positive cases re going down that we than we really are doing better.
“This is what concerns Jha. Because antibody tests are meant to be used on the general population, not just symptomatic people, they will, in most cases, have a lower percent-positive rate than viral tests. So blending viral and antibody tests “will drive down your positive rate in a very dramatic way,” he said.“
It gives people the false impression that the virus is going away and so we can open up when the results aren’t separated out.
for those looking for some background on counting, Nate Silver’s 538 had an article on that yesterday. The gist of it is that the federal data counting system is purposely setup to be accurate, and therefore it is slow. In other words, purposely not designed for a daily count in a pandemic. But the article are addresses different counting methodology down the local sheriff/coroner. Worth checking out.
(hopefully this falls under “information” in the topic title, if not, apologies to the mod.)
It looks to me like the decoupling only came after local media started reporting on it. Except in Texas where, though the Governor has denied it - the Texas Tribune is reporting they are still commingling the data.
At the beginning of all of this, my neighbor made a comment to me about how little cash reserves she and her husband had, and the fact that she was extremely worried about her income. She works in sales and with the shut down, her sales were essentially going to be non-existent. She is the breadwinner. Her husband has a so-so local government job, but it is an appointed position so not much job security for him either. Despite telling me that, next thing I know, I see them having several home improvement projects done (one of which was several thousand dollars as we did the same exact thing late last year). All have been aesthetic improvements, nothing that was necessary. Last week she complains to me that she took a 40% pay cut while many in her office were laid off. The next day her dh told me he was thinking he will most likely get furloughed in the next few months.
Different strokes, I guess. Dh is facing a possible temporary 20% pay cut so we aren’t doing any unnecessary spending and just in case, we are already making cuts on certain things (for example, after months of procrastinating “cutting the cord” we are getting rid of cable and our landline).
My cousin is a real estate broker in our suburb of Chicago. He is SWAMPED with people from the city wanting to move to the burbs. They are doing all the protocols to make showings as clean as possible, zoom closings etc… He’s had several people wanting to rent a suburban house with a pool and willing to pay 20k and up per month(!) for a home with a nice pool. I know of one family who has a big house with a resort style pool who are going to her mothers for the summer in Florida. They were offered 25k per month for 3 months to rent her house!
Our CEO asked everyone to take this Friday off. No emails, no meetings, no deadlines this Friday. He asked people leaders to set a good example. Thanks boss.
More than you could with the handbook from the current administration! So of course it’s very easy to criticize the real thing vs. the imaginary thing. That imaginary thing is perfect. The best ever. Historically good. Such amazing planning.
@emilybee, my skeptical friends on Facebook love to point out any inconsistency or problems with reporting COVID-19 statistics. To them, it’s proof the entire thing is a conspiracy or at least totally overblown. That’s why they would gloat about the active virus/antibody reports being combined.
The states that are including serological testing in their testing reporting, without separating it out, have me baffled and angry. A serological test tells whether a person has had covid and recovered. A PCR tests tells whether a person is currently infected with covid. These are not the same thing, and it makes no sense to add them together.
For the states that have reportedly been doing this, it will make their response look better than it is. It will make them appear to be testing for current infection more than they actually are, and have a lower positivity rate for current infection than they actually do. It’s indefensible from the point of view of transparency and presentation of accurate information to the public. It misleads the public, and moreover misleads any public official who is relying on the information.
H went to the grocery store today. Boston suburbs. He said it was not crowded and he didn’t see anyone without a mask. He still insisted we disinfect all the groceries, despite the latest news.
Can we take the pandemic gameplan discussion to Reddit? I know by now who everybody hates. I am interested in developments in fighting Covid-19, and what is going on outside my bubble.
I had a conversation with my mom today also. She was doing great staying in but now that her state has opened, she is doing more. At first she was playing cards with only a few neighbors but yesterday she played with 8. She said that everyone was doing really good except one lady who’s going out and about and traveling.
When I told her that one person who is not staying home can infect the other 7 who are. She defended herself that she’s doing well staying home and only seeing people she knows well.
She also told me that her county had very few cases. Except for a local food processing plant that just found 60 cases out of a workforce of 300. But none of those people live in her neighborhood, so she’s not mixing with them.
Sigh! She was very defensive, I was trying to be non-judgemental.
My husband (who has an autoimmune disease) said that he doesn’t want to visit as she’s not being careful.
I feel awful, my mom is a widow with no family nearby.
Just got back from my first haircut in a long while in Palm Beach County, Florida.
Three male barbers and the owner, Italians and Brazilians, mostly older guys, it’s a guys’ barber shop. Owner had no mask, the three barbers did, two of the four customers had masks. I started out with a mask, but it was a hassle to cut my hair like that so the barber said don’t worry take it off, which I did.
Some quotes: “I’ve been through WW3 in my life, the last thing I am worried about is a disease like this. I pray to God, and what will be will be” - 65 year old barber
“We got the $850 PUA payments [per week] like most barbers during the shutdown, and most shops were open on the weekends because the county guys don’t work on weekends so it was pretty good in April.”
“Thank God no one here has gotten sick and no one in our families [in response to my inquiries regarding the period of the shutdown about 6 weeks].”
“I’m not worried at all - I’m sure I already had it; I was sick as a dog for a week in January and had trouble breathing” - 50-something barber
I love this barber shop. They take their time - 20-30 minutes for a guy’s haircut - and it’s $18.
@bluebayou That article on 538 was excellent! It really put the numbers into perspective for me. I’ve been tracking my state’s numbers for almost 2 months and have seen some wonky things. Silver’s explanation makes a lot of sense.
@deb922, have you talked to your mom about harm reduction? For example, she could wear a mask in her card games, and try to normalize that among the other players. She could lay in a supply of masks for her friends. Put hand sanitizer or wipes on the card table. Play outside if weather permits.
She wants to socialize with her friends over the card table, and probably eat and drink too. But indoor card games are exactly the kind of gathering that spreads covid. That’s the prototypical superspreading event, if one person is unknowingly positive.
If a food processing plant has found 60 cases among workers, there are already many cases among the people they live with. Who knows where those family members go?