Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

Yes, it’s especially frustrating to hear stories like suteiki’s infectuous specialist son who reported back to his own family in December that there would be a pandemic - helpfully warning them to buy masks and food. While it wasn’t until the beginning of Feb when the WHO sent a team and not until mid-February until the WHO announced that this might become a pandemic. And of course during all that time, the US authorities are urging people not to wear masks and the WHO is recommending against closing borders or restricting travel.

To an outsider, the infectuous specialists who knew back in December this would become a pandemic and tipping off their families to buy supplies that would soon become impossible for ordinary people to get ahold of sounds an awful lot like the actions of the slimy senators who were publicly telling people not to worry while quietly selling their stocks before a crash they knew was coming.

It’s not a mystery why people are distrustful.

I had to buy a set of 30 large spools of thread and I’m not in the least picky about colors - do you want me to send you something?

Well, yeah, but I don’t have any reason to believe my biological age is younger than my chronological age. Maybe it’s older. Who knows? My best estimate, absent any other information, is that my risk is what the statistics are showing me it is.

I did forget to mention that you and I have one big advantage, a protective extra X chromosome. That’s a 0.8 hazard ratio compared to the average according to the UK stats.

That is if the infectious disease specialists in question were telling the public that there is nothing to worry about. But if they were trying to blow the whistle on it, but WHO and the US government (etc.) wouldn’t listen, would you really blame them for alerting their families and any else who would listen, or WHO and the US government (etc.) for not listening?

But then it wasn’t just infectious disease specialists alerting their families. https://thecity.nyc/2020/05/the-life-and-death-divide-between-flushing-and-corona.html describes how the Flushing neighborhood in NYC got early warning from relatives in Asia about the seriousness of COVID-19, while the nearby Corona neighborhood (similar in most respects, but 10% Asian instead of 69% Asian) got much less early warning and got hit much harder by COVID-19.

That is so thoughtful of you!! I don’t want to take your stock, and I can wait it out. I am now able to get white (after three weeks of waiting), so I anticipate pink, red, and navy will be restocked soon. I have a couple spools in other colors, but they are really old (inherited-old) and I am not sure if they may have weakened over time (cotton?). At this point I am sewing for the food pantry, and winding that down. I am gathering what I need to replenish what I used and in case DD and her friends need extra masks when the time comes to return to school.

Couldn’t agree with you more!

Inherited-old cotton thread is probably not good anymore. See if it breaks easily.

But if they are social distancing from everyone, including their grandparents, now, why can’t they just continue distancing from the elderly and compromised?

My point isn’t to be upset at the individual infectious disease specialists, but at the WHO, CDC, governments from most nations, etc. The odds that only one or two random genius infectious disease specialists knew what was really happening and the WHO, CDC, governments didn’t are… not believable. IOW, all those agencies knew and delayed (that’s the nicest phrasing I can think of) warning the public.

I’m not upset at a doc who calls his family and says - mom, this will be bad, buy some extra food - I’m upset that clearly the experts and leaders knew, too and were either not telling the public or were flat out lying. That’s why people don’t trust the latest edicts - they no longer trust.

Edited to add: I was unclear, when I wrote in that first post about the “specialists” who were like the slimy senators, I meant the specialists at the TOP - like the WHO, CDC, government - who had been hearing from all the individual experts on the ground.

Yes. I can’t easily break it, but I am giving the masks to others and want them to be sturdy. I save the old thread for minor repairs, crafting, and reattaching some buttons.

There have been some research papers around the concept of “biological age” (e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1361266/ and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4440677/ ). It does look like the concept is basically that of adjusting your age for how healthy you are in various characteristics (with healthier characteristics and measurements (e.g. low blood pressure, no obesity, no smoking, exercise, good bone density, etc.) making you “younger”).

But whether any generalized notions of “biological age” have any impact on risk of bad outcomes from COVID-19 is not really known (beyond that specific characteristics that can cause one to be “older” are already known risk factors for COVID-19).

An update from about half an hour ago about my 95-year-old aunt: There has been a COVID-19 outbreak at Mom’s nursing home. Over 2/3 of the residents have tested positive and there have been at least 4 deaths in the past week. We found out this morning that Mom also tested positive. So far she has no symptoms, but has to move to the part of the building where they are isolating residents for 14 days. That could be very hard on her. Please remember her in your prayers. We have not been able to see her in person, other than through her window, since mid-March.

Well, I doubt they expected it, nor care that they won’t get it.

I think they’ve pretty much blown off the whole “if you don’t toe the line, do exactly what we say no matter how silly some of it has been (and still is) you’re a bad person”.

We’ll see who’s right or wrong, but I feel the tide has turned back to looking at this like we’ve looked at past strong flu years.

@milee30

I misspoke, my apologies. I didn’t mean to say our friend knew a pandemic was coming but that he felt the virus, which appeared to him to be very dangerous and deadly, would come to the USA. My family who he warned has people who have some pretty serious health issues and thus the warning.

He is not working for the CDC or some other organization for which he could speak back in December or even January and warn people of things. And he didn’t think a big warning was needed at that time since he expected we would implement standard responses (which did not get implemented to his surprise). However, he did extensive work trying to improve China’s chances to contain the virus at risk to his own life, going to China twice in December.

This person isn’t my son, just by the way. My son is in high school.

I had the virus on my radar in December and by early January was very concerned. I expected it would be contained but the things that would have contained it or at least greatly slowed it were not implemented and by the middle to 3rd week of January I was very worried and started buying masks. I tried to talk to some people about it but everyone shut me down as crazy so what was I (not a doctor) supposed to do? It was hard to get my family to take it seriously and to prepare. I don’t think I had power to do much more than that. I did post in the big thread what I thought and I do not feel that my posts had any influence on what other people thought. Those who thought it was not a big deal didn’t seem to change their thinking as a result of anything I said. People changed their thinking when schools closed down and the government (local and national) made various decisions.

I read news of the virus daily from late December and there were many warnings by various infectious disease and pandemic specialists from January, and continuing in February and March. I don’t know how anyone reading the news daily was not aware well in advance that the situation was not good and that testing hadn’t gotten going and so we could not tell if there was spread or not in January and February (but how could there not be?)

I just had to see all that China did to lock down Wuhan and how the cases kept rising and rising in spite of a much more stringent lockdown than maybe any other country took to see this was a very hard to control virus that was very scary. If that didn’t control things, having things open like other countries did for much longer than China had let things go would likely lead to huge numbers of cases, which turned out what ended up happening.

The WHO was posting daily about the situation and while they didn’t call it a pandemic until mid-February, they were telling the world very regularly that ‘the window of opportunity to control the virus is quickly closing’ and urging countries to get testing going, quarantine, contact tracing, border screening and all the things that could slow and control the spread. I read their site very frequently, often daily, starting in early January. They appeared to have to try to balance China’s need to ‘save face’ in order to have access with alerting the world, but they certainly were ringing the alarm bells from very early in this.

I don’t know the reasoning behind the WHO’s advice on border closings or restricting travel and would like to better understand the thinking behind it.

The friend who warned my brother and his family (who actually didn’t tell me until much later and well after I had been scared enough to start preparing on my own) is a good guy who did a lot of hard work to try to help make things better. He was completely frustrated by the way China handled things. Regarding how the rest of the world handled things he said, “we are (bad word).”

As far as prepping, my D recently showed us a copy of a text she sent to her H at the end of January, referring (half-seriously at the time) to possible pandemic. We started stocking food for real mid-February, after articles in the NYTimes. Wish the government had been as on top of it, for everyone. (I only have so much national influence, lol).

My nephew works for a very prominent senator. He told my sister to avoid NYC in early Feb, that was before we thought Corvid was a real problem. I believe our government had a lot more intel earlier than what they shared with us.

The lawyers can chime in on this…people have the freedom of wearing mask or not, but a store could deny services to anyone they want, as long as it is not based on race, sex, religion, sexual orientation, age, etc. People can protest all they want about not wanting to wear a mask, but if a store requires mask then people would have to put on a mask. The grocery store I was at with my mom, if you didn’t have a mask you weren’t getting in.

Not a lawyer, but several I’ve listened to on TV all said that yes, any store can mandate masks, i.e., no masks-no service. The issue then becomes one of enforcement. Do managers/owners really want their retail clerks getting into a possible confrontation with customers, some of which could be whack?

^Well, since someone has already been killed for asking, that’s a really good question. When people are jerks, or worse, it’s really hard to know how to continue a civil society. Definitely could use leadership on this. The bully pulpit can be put to good use. Or not.

There was an article in the San Diego paper today that talked to a number of restauranteurs about whether they would open under the new guidelines. Some of them are sticking with just take out because they don’t want to deal with non-mask wearers demanding nonexistent rights. They’re waiting to see if it’s a problem locally.

@oldfort, we know the Feds had Intel on the virus sometime in December and even more intel in January. They made a decision to ignore it and not warn the public. Then as more information was getting out to the public in February, they chose to downplay it.

It’s been reported on extensively.