Are you asking how many will be willing or how many will be able?
I’m guessing that vaccines will be offered in waves-first responders/medical professionals, other “essential” workers, then “most vulnerable,” and on down. It will of course not be available to everyone at once.
I also think many will decline due to fears about safety, and these will be people who usually are on board with vaccines.
You left out some of us or our loved ones will die.
“More than half of U.S. states have begun to reopen their economies or plan to do so soon. But most fail to meet criteria recommended by the Trump administration to resume business and social activities.
The White House’s guidelines are nonbinding and ultimately leave states’ fates to governors. The criteria suggest that states should have a “downward trajectory” of either documented coronavirus cases or of the percentage of positive tests. Public health experts expressed criticism because “downward trajectory” was not defined and the metrics do not specify a threshold for case numbers or positive rates.
Still, most states that are reopening fail to adhere to even those recommendations: In more than half of states easing restrictions, case counts are trending upward, positive test results are rising, or both, raising concerns among public health experts.“
The six feet of distancing, though, is not in fact based on any science. It might be right, it might not be. It is kind of like “drink 8 glasses of water a day” – widely accepted, and based on absolutely no science.
In fact, what studies there are, show that the virus apparently is transmissable for 30+ feet, and there is also a study now saying that the virus might be aerosolized. Two things that might make 6 feet apart inadequate.
At this point, there are very few absolute “knowns” because the virus is so new to us, and there just haven’t been time for studies to answer all our questions.
Personally, I will “trust but verify” – it was only a few weeks ago that we were urged NOT to wear masks, that’s totally changed. I am not trying to convince anyone to change their behavior – we all have to do what we feel comfortable with. Just outlining a different perspective.
ETA a link with support for my statements (the article contains links to studies backing up my assertions)
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/6-feet-of-social-distancing-not-nearly-enough-cdcs-recommendation-driving-some-experts-nuts.html
I agree that good government & leadership matters.
I’m just guessing, but I think some people are concluding the government is not going to handle this well or efficiently & the government is not going to take care of us. (I, for one, am very disappointed).
Sure, there is mistrust of experts and mistrust of the news, but I think there is more to it and we will see continued social unrest.
NOT starting a political debate here.
I meant how many would be willing…and agree with you that some will have safety concerns if the safety part of the timelines have been compressed, and/or the total number of patients in clinical studies are significantly lower than what we would typically see with other launched vaccines. For some of the vaccines it’s true they aren’t starting at ground zero, OTOH at least one SARS vaccine failed because it didn’t prevent infections.
I also agree the groups and order receiving the vaccination in waves.
Most everyone here has a US centric bent too…there are many vaccines in development outside the US, and if one of those is approved, US citizens would not be first in line.
As I suspected, being outdoors greatly reduces the chance of getting the virus (note I said REDUCES not ELIMINATES) -
Open the beaches and parks - people need to get out!
Our trails will open tomorrow (finally). I think most people thought closing the parks and trails was a dumb decision by the governor and it engendered a lot of hostility.
My group of friends who were very cautious at first about the virus are now just played out with this lockdown. We want our club opened for outdoor tennis. None of us know anyone who came down with the virus.
Outdoor activities are healthy. It makes no sense that the weed shops are open so you can stay stoned all day, but healthful outdoor activities are closed.
I’m floored by the article announcing that COVID-19 survivors will be barred permanently from joining the US military. I’ve heard nothing from medical sources that would justify it, and it seems counterproductive on two levels: the military loses recruits, and people are going to be very resistant to being tested if it appears that being confirmed positive might come with a permanent stigma.
Contact tracing is a non-starter if people won’t get tested because they’re afraid that they’ll be discriminated against or their insurance premiums will go up. And I couldn’t really blame people from deciding not to test under those terms. If the US military has instituted a blanket policy of fear-based discrimination, I don’t think it is paranoid to think other places will follow.
No one is forced to go out. If you feel more comfortable staying home and wiping your groceries, continue to do so for as long as you wish. Let others go about their business
I went grocery shopping for the first time in several weeks - probably seven or so. Dh has been going every ten days to two weeks for us, but I am now going to start going. I was apprehensive about my trip, but it was fine. There were probably five people I saw who did not have on masks. No chicken to be seen, but no other meat issues or limitations. No disinfectant wipes or sprays. No hand sanitizer.
I am frustrated with one friend who I feel is constantly “scolding” me. I am just not doing Covid-19 “right.” Nothing is good enough. I was scolded for going to the beach and not wearing a mask. We went and sat at least 8 feet from our friends. Not good enough. Going to the store every ten days to two weeks. Not good enough. Going to get my dermatologist to get my annual skin cancer check. I shouldn’t go. She claims we are on “polar opposites” about this pandemic. Gosh, I don’t think that is true at all. I was about to ask on here about studies/reports on the safety of being outside at the beach. However, I thought the better of it and am tired of trying to convince her that I am not a “bad” person. So, I just messaged her that in the interest of our friendship that we should stick to fluffier topics - food & beverage, interior design, fashion, etc. I said that I hoped that would be okay with her and that I would be sad if it were not as I value our communication. We only text/message. This perhaps should have gone in the “get it off your chest” thread.
So even with the horrific death toll and no vaccine they didn’t even get close to herd immunity (70%). Sobering thought. What was the R0 of that flu?
The flip side is they made it through, with 72% of the population uninflected, which is encouraging.
This was inevitable.
“One week after Georgia allowed dine-in restaurants, hair salons and other businesses to reopen, an additional 62,440 visitors arrived there daily, most from surrounding states where such businesses remained shuttered, according to an analysis of smartphone location data.
Researchers at the University of Maryland say the data provides some of the first hard evidence that reopening some state economies ahead of others could potentially worsen and prolong the spread of the novel coronavirus. Any impetus to travel, public health experts say, increases the number of people coming into contact with each other and raises the risk of transmission.
“It’s exactly the kind of effects we’ve been worried about,” said Meagan Fitzpatrick, an assistant professor at the University of Maryland School of Medicine.”
I personally would be very concerned about being administered a fast tracked vaccine. I’m not an anti-vaxxer by any means but most of the immunizations we are given have been around for a very long time and have gone through rigorous testing protocols. Plenty of time to see what kind of potential side effects might occur and to determine that they are safe. I’d worry that with a fast tracked vaccine not enough time would have passed to determine if there were potential side-effects that might not be realized until down the road. How many times do you hear of drugs that get approved only to be removed once unanticipated side-effects are discovered (thalidomide comes to mind)? One of the things that would help to mitigate my concern somewhat would be if the production and distribution of the vaccine was done not-for-profit so that profit considerations wouldn’t be part of the risk analysis framework. At least then there would less incentive to push ahead with a potentially risky vaccine in the name of $.
I agree with you about outdoor activity being helpful and healthy. For the trails near us though, many lead to the higher peaks and/or extreme backcountry areas. I think closing the trails was a way to keep Search and Rescue calls down. We get them a lot – especially this time of year when it may be 65 degrees in the valley but 35 degrees with snow on a peak. People who are inexperienced who go out without being prepared (and there are a lot of them) get in trouble. Also, even experienced hikers can fall and break a leg. A SAR team coming to get you means twenty to thirty people sometimes, all working very close together for many hours. Also, our local hospitals can’t handle the tons of people from out of the area who come here to recreate outdoors. So with trails closed, you reduce or nearly eliminate the need for SAR, and the hospitals don’t run the risk of being overwhelmed. I believe that was the logic for closing the trails, at least the ones in our greater area.
This goes to show New York’s failure to take COVID-19 seriously led to most of the deaths in this country.
I am no anti-vaxxer either. I get all my immunizations and boosters. But I remember the Swine flu vaccine debacle of the 1970’s. So I will be extra cautious with this one.
Really? CV was running rampant in NYC in February and March because there was no testing. The horse was out of the barn by the time they were able to identify this issue. Recall, the federal government said it was all controlled and going away in April and there were no tests to be had throughout the first weeks of March. The revisionist history begins…
It is more than possible that like France, cases in NYU were occurring well before March, maybe before Feb, maybe in Jan, Dec. This laughable state line aspect I see on this thread is amazing to me. Any city with population density and big airport terminals is vulnerable.
Actually both WHO’s 1 meter rec, and CDC’s 6 ft rec are based on some science (TB for WHO, SARS for CDC). https://qz.com/1831100/where-does-the-six-feet-social-distancing-guideline-come-from/
With that said, I agree with your points that there is still so much we don’t know, and I hope that recs and guidelines will be updated if and when additional data become available.