Many, many public health officials and epidemiologists spoke out about the consequences of reopening to soon - before any state went ahead and did it. They were talking about it when the SIP/SAH/Liberate US protests started.They spelled out exactly what would happen. And everyone knew that these states numbers weren’t low enough to re-open and that they weren’t even following the minimum guild lines from the CDC and they reopened anyway, with no plans in place to monitor, let alone control, the reopening. Even we discussed it at length on the two previous CV threads (end of April through all of May.)
They willfully choose to ignore the science and the data.
I listened to my Governor say every single day, “ you tell me what kind of behavior people are engaging in, and I’ll tell you in two weeks the number of infections you will see.”
They’ve done serology tests in New York City. They got 25% incidence, not 50%. Since those tests have been done, more people have become infected, but not twice as many.
I must admit,I do not get the blatant disregard for data by some posters on this site. It matters, a whole lot, if we should be 1 meter or 4 feet or 6 feet or whatever distance from each other. We are talking about millions of kids trying to fit in schools, for heavens sake. The schools are stressed enough about trying to get this to work, and could presumably fit twice as many kids in school if the distance is 3 rather than 6 feet, as some European countries are doing. Expecting data to support this decision is rational, so why others dismiss this question is utterly incomprehensible to me.
Maybe they just want to take the easiest approach of whatever the first slogan is, regardless of whether it is accurate to show they support action. But I will be super upset if it turns out that the same result could have been obtained with 3 foot distancing as 6 foot, and thousands of kids suffered from exclusion as result. Moreover, it is possible 7 feet is is the magic number, right? So the distancing we do now isn’t necessarily effective? This is why we need data.
NYC Metro did not really fully reopen- everyone who can work remotely still works remotely, almost no indoor services and people are generally careful.
For example, many NJ towns closed their downtowns for traffic and let restaurants set up tents on the street
Of course, the actual answer for “how far do you have to be to avoid being infected by a contagious person?” depends on the situation.
Even within school classrooms, there are variables like how well ventilated it is. A classroom with big windows may be well ventilated when they are opened. But when the weather becomes unpleasant, teachers and students may not want the windows open. So minimum social distance (and therefore classroom capacity) would be different depending on the season.
So there is no one true “magic number”, even though governments want to keep it simple for the general population and state a single number rather than tell people to go through a complex decision tree to find the minimum social distance for each situation. Keeping it simple with a single number does not account for the variation in situations, but would you really expect the general population to properly apply a complex decision tree to determine the minimum social distance in every situation?
@Cleodx , well aware of the measures in place, as I live in CT. But I have also seen the behavior of my fellow residents. If you saw the shopping center parking lots on a weekend day, you would think there was no pandemic. My point was that cases have continued to decrease despite a relaxing of behavior on the part of many. Yes, mask wearing continues at a high rate, and I hope that it’s playing a large role. But with the timing of the higher numbers in southern states, I have been wondering if there isn’t more going on than just exemplary rule-following by us New Englanders and mid-Atlantic folks.
I wish we had a separate COVID thread for those who want to argue the same points back and forth ad nauseum although clearly no one is changing any one else’s mind. Then we could use this thread for information and observation rather than insults and sarcasm and snark and squabbling.
It’s not up to me. I agree this thread is out of control. Please contact an administrator. I know Jon hoped this would be a positive thread if you look at his OP.
You characterized those you disagree with as rejecting anything short of a complete improvement of the situation counting as an improvement.
And yes, that’s what you said. The direct quote from you, summarizing those you were arguing against, was “the consensus is that we must have 100 percent perfection before any progress can be mentioned”.
However, that was the position taken by, as far as I can tell, precisely zero of the people on this thread. Rather, what you were questioning was not just an extreme version of those you disagree with, but also one that’s pretty easy to discount as overly extreme.
Which is, really, pretty much the precise definition of a strawman.
So either retract the claim, or live with the label.
This thread is uncomfortable, I do dip in for information.
I would love it if the next month’s thread could be limited to information (realizing that info can be biased toward certain points of view, but it can at least pose as objective). I really liked DosChicos’ thread, which many of us could rely on for news and info.
I am also interested in reasons for hope, so information on treatment studies, vaccines and public health measures that are working is always welcome.
Or since there seem to be “sides” to a lot of debates, maybe there could be two threads
I like to see people present and defend their positions. Since we can’t (or shouldn’t) get together with our friends and have intense discussions, this is a nice substitute. I don’t really have a problem with people having strongly held beliefs. I don’t find it discomforting or depressing. If I did I’d read something else. I like to see posters’ personalities.
I was surprised too, as I was about the fireworks. The running club is sponsored by the city, so they must approve it. But to be fair, they are hardly the NYCM! 200 people is a good turnout. 100 is more common, but those numbers don’t include spectators and volunteers.
Initially, our city seemed to be aggressive about keeping the virus under control. They had workers assigned to constantly wipe down things with bleach. They set up great benefits for those who might come down sick or must quarantine or stay home with kids. (They did more than required by the feds.) They also set up daycares for those who lost it. They sent us home to work which was previously unheard of. I was impressed and grateful and told the city manager so a few times.
The switch came when phase 2 was enacted. It feels like opening up and getting back to normal is the priority now - even though our cases are now just starting to ramp up. We’ve gone from one case in the area every few days to 18 in the last 2. Not large numbers as some areas, but we are not a large place and the numbers are definitely heading in the wrong directions as everyone now heads to Myrtle beach for their annual vacation. I’d love to know the reasons behind the switch in attitude from management.
Ahhhhhh, the calm.of early morning (east coast). I just read through the night’s posts.
@Creekland, thank you for several rational posts regarding the southern states. Much of what you posted was enlightening and although we don’t always seem to agree I think I am fully on board with what you posted.
In those regards it is still interesting the split between the northeast and southern states. I do personally believe the virus has hit a large enough portion in many areas (NYC in particular) that it is not transmitting as easily. Obviously we haven’t reached herd immunity there but if say you do take away 25% of the population that was apparently easily infected perhaps the 75% left is a subset that is taking different precautions or any number of things that could keep them “safer”. Obviously if a quarter of your population is presumably immune, for the time being, that will in fact slow down the virus (not stop it(. Change my.mind.
As for opening. Maryland was pretty hard hit too. We had bad numbers earlier this year, worse than many southern states. We have been opening for 6 weeks and haven’t seen spikes like southern states that recently started to open. Our restaurants and bars are open to 50% inside. Our gyms are open to reduced operations. Outdoor amusements are open. Maybe we’re also benefiting in some way from a larger portion of the population having had the virus already. Perhaps some southern states saw these trends in the northeast and thought they would be ok? At least they’re changing course and adjusting which our area may also have to do at some point.
Packing inside up north for heat or down south for AC may very well be a contributing factor for spread. Perhaps after the southern states get their real first hard spike like the northeast did their numbers will improve too as more people getting the virus makes it harder on the virus to transfer to new hosts.
I still believe each area will in fact go through it’s own battle with the virus based on local conditions. Many areas of the US have not been hit hard yet. I believe those areas will also get spikes as the virus moves in and does it’s thing. Obviously rural areas will fair better and take longer to get to but they’ll still have issues. Obviously urban areas with more people, mass transit and people living on top of each other will be first and hit hardest.
I personally don’t mind the differences of opinion here. It’s good to hear from different camps. What I could use less of is the political bashing. It gets old and doesn’t really add anything positive to the conversation.
Silly as it seems, I follow quite a few bloggers and Instagram influencers. They are from all over the country but it seems that the people I follow live in the south (Texas and Florida) or NYC area
In my very small sample, it seems to me that the NYC area influencers have been very very careful about staying at home. Taking the SAH orders very seriously and have reported very few openings. They have just now started seeing family and are not even seeing friends. It’s been very serious.
I have a kid in eastern PA and things have just started to open.
On the other hand, the Texas and Florida bloggers have been out and about since the beginning of May. They for the most part did not take SIP as seriously. They are posting about going to restaurants, going to the hairdresser, parties. Life has gone with only a small interruption.
So I’m not going to think that NYC has herd immunity. I think that because they were so hard hit, that they personally know people affected by the coronavirus, they have been much more careful about SAH.
It’s a very stark difference. I had to unfollow a few bloggers because they were not taking thinks seriously. And it was not just young people.
Criticizing our current leadership is political bashing only to the most partisan. I’m an independent and I never vote along party line. However, the lack of leadership at the federal and many state levels, the inability of politicians to wean themselves from politics as usual in time of a crisis of this magnitude is truly a tragedy of enormous proportion.
