@Creekland , yes, it’s interesting to look at the data for different counties and even zip codes. I look at a lot of Florida counties - as a 6+ generation Floridian, I have relatives living all over the state! Anyway, the county reports show how there is a huge difference between various counties.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf
Putting aside that significant portion of FL’s recent spike is due to increases in testing, FL has fared better than almost any big state in the country.
FL’s deaths per 100k = 13 (despite having one of the largest populations of senior citizens)
NY’s death per 100K = 157
No doubt in my mind that Cuomo will shut down again if necessary. I’m very glad to know he will take the appropriate action instead of burying his head in the sand.
‘Officials in N.Y. and Houston are considering another lockdown.‘
“With sunny and warm weekend weather in New York City and its suburbs, social media feeds were filled with videos and reports of residents violating social distancing rules, including Friday night in Manhattan’s East Village, a bar-and-restaurant friendly neighborhood. Outdoor drinkers, many without masks, also congregated on street corners in Hell’s Kitchen on Saturday, where gay pride celebrations were underway.”
On Sunday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said that the state had been deluged with some 25,000 complaints about businesses that “are in violation of the re-opening plan,” a number that he said alarmed and upset him.
“We have never received more complaints in a shorter period of time,” he said, adding that it spoke to some residents’ ongoing concern about infection. “You know why? They are afraid for themselves.”
Specifically, Mr. Cuomo said that bar patrons in Manhattan and the Hamptons on Long Island had been flouting the rules, and warned that if local officials did not crack down on such behavior the state could be forced to suspend re-opening plans.”
“There is a very real possibility that we would roll back the reopening in those areas,” he said, adding that if people didn’t abide social distancing rules, including wearing masks, a second wave of infections was almost inevitable. “It will come. And once it comes, it’s too late.”
@“Cardinal Fang”
So is Florida counting multiple tests per person in the positivity stats or no? How are other stats doing it?
@cmfl11
Why is the also do the linked tweet above says current postivity 3.9%, but you mentioned Percent of Positive Results has averaged 7.12% and Percent Positivity for New Cases has averaged 5.32% for the last five days., Neither of those numbers come close to the 3.9%
Wouldn’t it be great if we had federal guidance on how to count and report Covid cases, exactly the same, across the country? Sigh.
Death rate is a lagging indicator - number of new cases goes up first, few weeks later number of hospitalization goes up and then number of deaths goes up.
NY’s new cases peaked around April 1s and number of deaths peaked around April 15th.
The large crowds that came to support Black Trans Lives in Brooklyn can not be making Cuomo happy tonite. Easily a few thousand people, limited social distancing but lots of mask wearing.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/thousands-clad-in-white-rally-in-support-of-black-trans-lives-outside-brooklyn-museum/2463435/
20k people indoors shouting and cheering, with no SD, and minimal mask wearing? At least we have volunteers to do our Covid contagion studies. If there is no outbreak in OK from this by mid July, we can all comfortably go back to normal life. We shall see.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/LA-County-reports-1-568-new-coronavirus-cases-58-15338575.php
Los Angeles County public health officials on Saturday reported 1,568 new COVID-19 cases and 58 related deaths, marking the fifth day in a row the county reported more than 1,200 new cases.
New cases have also been on the rise statewide, with California recording its highest one-day total on Thursday and then again on Friday. L.A. County remains the site of more than half of the 5,000-plus deaths recorded by the state and nearly half of its 149,000 cases.
At this point we have a lot of data points of many states that have gone through this. We know percentage of infected people based on demographic would end up in hospitals and need ventilators. Those new hot spot states can figure out if they would have enough beds and ventilators.
@suzyQ7 Yes, it seems like there are lots of questionable sources out there now. I don’t know where Dave Blake (the tweeter) gets his data, but I suspect it is a little out of date. Prior to the last 5 days, the Percent Positivity for New Cases had been between 3% and 4% for about a week for Florida.
I know you didn’t ask the other question of me, but for the Percent of Positive Results, Florida includes multiple tests for the same person if they occur on different days. They count one result per person per day. In the Percent Positivity for New Cases, Florida includes only positives where a person is testing positive for the first time. That’s why the Percent of Positive Results is always bigger than the Percent Positivity for New Cases. I don’t know how any other states are calculating positivity rates as I only follow Florida closely.
This will make you all chuckle. I needed red wine vinegar for a recipe I was making. I went to a regular large grocery store…part of a chain. The vinegar section looked like the toilet paper section looked like a few weeks ago. There was no red wine vinegar…at all. Actually there were several empty shelves. There was one gallon bottle of white vinegar.
My husband and I just ?♀️And left.
I went to a second smaller chain store, and did get my red wine vinegar but the selection there was pretty lean as well.
Did I miss a run on vinegar?
Yes - vinegar, soy sauce, olive oil, tofu. 
I guess I’m wondering when “they” (press, news articles, “experts”) are comparing all the “percent positive” between states, are they comparing apples to apples? I’ve never read the term “percent positivity for new cases only”. Why is the other number even relevant (showing positivity based on every test vs every person)? This is why people stop believing anything - there is no consistency between states and everything gets muddled - then there are mistakes, crappy headlines, and lack of trust. ? Why can’t we just be a normal country with consistent standards?
Because we’re not the UK or Denmark. Our educational infrastructure is differently designed, implemented and paid for not just state to state - but town to town. To do what Denmark did (oh, we could dream) would be to essentially adapt a very socialist model which this nation will reject the moment it understands it.
Yeah, I do. If you look at the daily cases, it goes down every week on the chart, indicating R<1. But R had to be greater than 1 at some point.
@suzyQ7 I agree that it can be really hard to tell what the numbers thrown around in the press mean. Most of the time, I’m convinced that the people doing the reporting don’t even understand the data, and they end up with a lot of misleading apples to oranges comparisons. That’s why, for my own state, I look at the data directly from the DOH. I don’t want to rely on any of the third party reports.
Personally, I think the Percent Positivity for New Cases (reported by Florida DOH) is more meaningful. For people who test positive, many will have multiple additional tests in order to determine when they’re no longer contagious, when they can go back to work, etc. It doesn’t make sense to me to keep recounting them if they test positive again. I don’t know if other states are including retests in their numbers or not. To complicate things further, I’ve read articles claiming that some states are counting antibody test results in with their PCR results. Shockingly, it seems that the CDC’s “dashboard” has also been doing that!
Too early.
It is actually quite normal about inconsistency of numbers, there is nothing abnormal about us. When it comes to reporting it is important to define terms and what it represents. In the US we leave it to each state/region/county to report number of new cases, deaths. hospitalization…those numbers are not consistent, so we are not comparing apples with apples. I think at some point someone at the federal level should come up with a standard way of reporting those numbers so we could do better reporting and analytics.
All I know is we are not looking good in Texas. Multiple days of record hospitalizations.
Yep. I’ve just stocked up on balsamic vinegar.They didn’t even have smaller size of apple cider vinegar, so I had to buy a gallon jug.
I stocked up on EVOO and sesame oil, too. Plus, chicken broth which I cook with a lot.
I’m consciously increasing the amount I buy of pantry items I use frequently. Instead of just buying one of something, I’m buying 3 or 4. I’m planning just a can goods pick up for the end of the week - things I’m more likely to need come fall.