I’m the one who believes it’s not a “crapshot”, and with big accomplishments, the chances can be improved significantly.
To validate my theory, I took a look at the 2015 Intel STS finalists who should be college freshmen now and did some search. Out of the first 5 alphabetical names, I found college destinations for 4 of those. 1 MIT, 1 Rice, 2 Stanford. No doubt in my mind, most of those guys have their picks of colleges and I would put the chances to be at least 80%. The only reason I don’t say higher is because there is always possibility someone becomes arrogant or the schools think they have better choices and don’t think they are actually coming. I would imagine the same for IMO, RSI, etc.
Now there are multiple levels on those. Just use math as example, there is IMO, IMO camp, USAMO qualifier, AIME qualifier. Each level down, I would say the chances go down substantially since the schools don’t need that many math people.
However, knowing those “trump cards” doesn’t really help most people. Being a little bit politically incorrect here, many of those are gifted just like in athletics. You won’t be the best high school qb in country no matter how much effort you put in if you are not gifted in that aspect.
So depending on the level of accomplishments/hooks and how easy and replaceable those are, your chance may be 80%, 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and for most applicants, maybe <1%. The “crapshoot” mentality is really a misnomer, and I would say the top schools are promoting that, if only passively. Otherwise, how do they keep on reducing the acceptance rates if people know their realistic chances and stop applying. “Crapshoot” indicates it’s a lottery and you have as good a chance as other people, but really for many, it’s “no-shoot”. Just because you are above the median SAT for the accepted means nothing. You may still get your customary 15 minutes reading by the readers, but that’s about it.
I think the real issue is the fixation on getting into those top schools. Once in college, everyone is on a clean slate again and most top 100 schools won’t limit you potential if you are good. Now there will always be many 5 stars not panning out in college, just like in football recruits. But then in hindsight, they don’t deserve to be there in the first place. So don’t compare to those. Besides, even if you were one of those, your psychology may be miserable since you would have “failed” and your classmates all end up better than you.
So to perspective students, I say stop the fixation on those Ivy type of schools. You are not helping yourselves, only boosting their egos. Apply if you are ok with your realistic chance, but your path may be somewhere else.