Group Think? Are we offering solid advice? Are we being influenced too much by rankings?

No doubt there is grade inflation, but we should challenge this stat, or at a minimum, better understand why it does not quite pass the sniff test - at least not for me.

The data sources are at the bottom of the page I linked, have you vetted those?

The 1966-2019 data are from these reports, here’s the 2019: https://www.heri.ucla.edu/monographs/TheAmericanFreshman2019.pdf

I do think the 2022 data may not be final/normed yet, I am sure the authors would be happy to answer your questions: Adobe Acrobat

Putting together a college list is quite a bit easier when you are 99 percent sure you can get into all the places on your list. Go visit. Talk to some people who go there. Lots of people on here have lots of questions about, say, St. Olaf or Bucknell because those are very selective and draw people from across the country. If you’re from San Diego, you might not have neighbors who went there. So this is a good place to ask people.

If you live 20 minutes from a non-selective state u, there’s a great chance your neighbor did go there. So CC offers less value added. This seems the bear out; I don’t see a lot of chatter on here about state schools with 95 percent acceptance rates.

You mention affordability
 and I agree on that. It was the whole point of my post.

Having spent a while on this site and having observed many people trying to find good safety / likely schools, I think it is not so easy to choose the best fits from the many good colleges out there where admission is extremely likely for the average CC applicant.

My son applied to a lot of colleges and in the end, he almost chose his “safety” school, because it turned out to be a better fit in many ways than most of the much more selective schools where he was also admitted. That school was originally a suggestion from CC, and posters on CC were also extremely helpful to us in sorting through his options.

It really isn’t, or shouldn’t be, all about getting into the most selective school that you can (even when that’s qualified as “also affordable”).

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I actually find the kids I help (IRL, not CC) who are the “average” kids are much more challenging and there’s MUCH more to talk about.

The kid agonizing over applying early to Tufts vs. Penn? (game theory, “Tufts syndrome”, loves Boston/hates Philly but parents are pushing Penn hard
) eh, it gets old very quickly. I do my best to tease out reality from fantasy, and to make sure that the kid who really, really wants to be an ethnomusicologist but parents will only pay for Bio/Pre-med or CS ends up some place where switching majors is easy


But the kid who either had a rocky start in HS and is slowly coming in to her own, or the kid who has passionate intellectual interests but could never be bothered turning in homework so GPA doesn’t reflect the kids interests or ability? Those are interesting.

So I don’t agree with the “kids with B’s and C’s, not a lot to talk about”. I think there’s a material difference between telling the highly intellectual kid who doesn’t have perfect grades (but has sky high scores) "You should check out Wittenberg and Lawrence and Goucher and Beloit before you trudge off to "pre-professional U down the street to major in early childhood education. We are lucky to live in the land of second and third chances. We should help kids make the most of it!

I took a “vocational interest” test in HS which told me my best fit careers were social work or becoming a nun. I would have been a disaster at both. I think the humans on CC can do better than those tests!

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My point is that there’s not a lot to talk about HERE. As evidenced by the fact that Penn State threads have thousands of posts
 and I’ve never seen a thread dedicated to Edinboro or Clarion. I guess you could say that’s because PSU is bigger. But tiny competitive colleges generate far more discussion than large open admission colleges.

This applies to most things. You’ll find lots and lots of opinions about Ferraris. But most people buying a car just want something that’s reliable and that they can afford. Most people aren’t passionate about it.

My own kids are in this category. They saw a few places. Loved a few. Others were meh.

By their own accounts they want a place with their major, that they can afford. They applied to a few reaches
 because they guarantee full need. If they get into those places and their safety, and the safety is cheaper by a noticeable amount, they are going to the safety. Because they don’t want the loans.

One twin said look. No matter where I go it’s mostly the same. Calculus doesn’t change. Socially, whether I go to NYU or a fall-down state school, I’ll be drinking warm beer on a dirty couch. Or whatever. I’ll make the best of it wherever.

He has no idea what “fit” means. He doesn’t want to live at home. So anywhere else is a fit.

Not a single one of their friends knows what SCOIR is. In that past 30 years maybe 1 kid from their region has gone to an Ivy League School. Maybe 2 to a NECSAC. When I ask what their friends are planning they shrug and say whatever.

CC is not real life. And most of the struggling kids you are talking about, around here at least, prioritize cost over everything. If your dad’s a die setter or a logger, accounting at Clarion is relatively indistinguishable from the Wharton School. They just don’t care.

I’ve seen a lot of kids/families here with good but not the best numbers get help finding possibly-affordable alternatives to just their in-state colleges (which are not always the most affordable options in the end). I agree that is sort of a niche thing from the perspective of the greater universe of college-bound kids, but I also think at least more kids could be considering such alternatives, they just don’t know it is even an option. So I think that is cool.

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There are also posters who have specific favorite colleges (e.g. Alabama with automatic scholarships) or types of colleges (e.g. highly selective private LACs) who tend to recommend them even when they are marginal at best for the student’s needs and wants.

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I agree that for the majority of American high school students, cost is the #1 issue. Even if they can get into their state flagship, affording tuition, room & board there is a significant hardship, and often out of reach. So those students go to the local college and commute from home, or start at a community college and then transfer for the final two years, or they go to school part-time and work their way through college, often taken 6-8 (or more) years to graduate. So although the students from this background who come to CC tend to have superlative stats that can get them entree to somewhere at a significantly discounted price, those students are the rare exceptions.

I think this is probably the corner of the market that could most use CC: the families that can afford to pay for their in-state flagship, but not much more. They’re the ones who tend not to realize how many other options there are out there that could be a better fit for their kids, because they don’t know about merit “discounting” (i.e. 99% of a school’s students get merit aid, so it’s no longer by needing to be a “top” student) or other ways that schools are making themselves affordable (like tuition resets).

100% agree.

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Yeah, the bottom line is any time we help a kid find an additional affordable and realistic option that they can get excited about considering, that is a big win. What that means will vary tremendously between kids, but there is such a great breadth and depth of knowledge here it is rare that no one can help.

And if that population is skewed, I don’t think that is an inherent issue–as long as we do our best for every kid.

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Now you’re just making stuff up. There are passionate and active online groups for Subaru owners; there are meet up groups for USED Honda Civic owners (they compete to see who has hit 200k miles with original equipment), there are people who are fanatics about their Dodge Darts and Valiants from the 1970’s (no, they don’t get the same mileage as the Hondas!)

If your point is that it’s only worth getting excited about something if it’s rare or expensive, I disagree vehemently. There are passionate people who post about the Romaine lettuce at Aldi, for gods sake, and some of them have thousands and thousands of followers.

If your point is that it’s not worth helping kids from low income families because they don’t really care about where they go to college- Ugh. What an elitist view. And if your point is that “everyone knows” about their local, non-elite college so why bother educating them about other options- again-- wow. My spouse was first Gen to college; got on a Grayhound bus with two suitcases for freshman year never having laid eyes on the elite school he was admitted to. Was the guidance counselor who said "Y’know, there’s something called financial aid and you might discuss with your parents if you’d be interested in “going away” to college " wasting her time? Why study something challenging and esoteric and then go to grad school if you can just become an accountant and stay in your home town- is THAT your point?

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From what you’ve shared, your kids (high stats/scores) and the other kids around you in real life (not so high stats/scores) both care first and foremost about cost.

Seems like costs should remain a big focus for discussion/conversation on CC and IRL.

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Do you want to know what happened with Michigan?

Anyone want to change their bet?

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Nope sticking with got into everything.

like the confidence

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I am going to say IN - stats are similar to accepted kids from our BS last year (while stronger candidates did not make it). Honestly, it was a real head scratcher. Don’t know how the school fared this year.

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U Michigan - Waitlist

Thanks to all for participating

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I guess it’s not over yet!

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This is why I think the essay requirement (at least as practiced by elite American Universities) is gross. I mean how is an 17 year old supposed to intuit what Yale really wants to hear when they ask the Why Yale question? (No silly, they don’t want a Why Yale essay, they want a Why You essay that will give deeper color to the cohesive story that you must present in the rest of your application!) It seems to me about the only way to know this would be to hire an essay coach.