By OP do you mean @michaelcollege, his “friend of family”, the CC community’s capacity to back test results or the airing of personal grievances? Just getting confused and want to ensure I am on topic.
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Fair enough. The mods have been fairly lenient about allowing this thread to wander and the OP has introduced new information. However, we do not want this to devolve into subtle and not-so-subtle trashing of other users. Additional posts along those lines will be deleted.
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I am going to say they got into all of them. Because this year up is down and down is up.
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I personally think this exercise is actually useful and maybe there can be a thread without TOS violation. I also helped someone but did get paid (I told them I didn’t want anything and they sent a check). But the schools and GPA were very similar. But I helped and read her essay. I knew her activities and interviewed her for 2 hours. Very hard just to guess so I won’t. My friends kid is going to Miami of Ohio which I gave her with almost free ride. They love the school and never heard of it. Same major BTW. I also referred their kid to someone that treats adhd and they said I changed their life. (yeah me, biofeedback is awesome)…
My point being, sometimes you don’t know which are the best schools until you look at schools that are better" fits" then the schools on their own lists.
Can’t wait for the results at some point. Mystery… 
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I love to hear that. Honestly, the only way I am able to learn these days is by getting facts about real applicants and seeing where they get in. This thread would be significantly stronger if it did not take 5 edits to get it through TOS. Thanks to @momofboiler1 for seeing it through.
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This thread got me thinking how does a group of knowledgeable, experienced CCer’s from many walks of life compare to a machine learning algorithm that has access to a gazillion amount of historical admit/deny data for different colleges, years, majors, GPA ranges, ECs, test scores, home states, ethnic/races, etc., when it comes to chance-me accuracy at colleges with admit rate between 10% and 60%. The former has the crowd wisdom and human touch advantage, along with the opportunity to interact with chance-me posters, from which some ideas on their background and how they may sound on their essays can be garnered. But the latter has a huge volume of hard, cold data. Who wins?
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I have a lot of confidence in your/my ability to… and that is why I pick AI.
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For parlour game purposes, will you be including what AI’s predictions were for this student?
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Accept: OSU
Maybe Accept: Villanova, Wisconsin
Reject: Michigan, Maryland
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No safety (100% chance of admission and affordability) category?
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In full disclosure, I was not allowed to include all of the colleges applied to - and they did have 5 that I would consider to be safer than OSU if that is the one we think is the safest on the post.
Ok, for parlour game purposes, I asked ChatGPT 4. Here is what it said:
Making an educated guess regarding admissions outcomes involves considering both the profile you’ve provided and the general selectivity and admissions trends of each institution. Let’s break down the chances based on the details shared:
- University of Maryland: With a strong GPA and good extracurricular activities, the student stands a fair chance, especially if their application essays are compelling and demonstrate a good fit with the university’s values. The medium rigor of the course schedule may be a slight drawback given UMD’s competitive nature, particularly for out-of-state students, but overall, the student seems to have a decent chance of admission.
- Villanova University: Given Villanova’s holistic review process and the emphasis on leadership and community involvement, a student with strong extracurriculars could be viewed favorably. The GPA is within a competitive range, assuming the rest of the application is strong. The student likely has a good shot here, especially if they can articulate their fit with Villanova’s values in their application.
- University of Wisconsin: This institution tends to have slightly less competitive admission standards compared to others on the list, particularly for in-state students, though it still remains selective. For an out-of-state student with a high GPA and solid extracurriculars, the chances are generally good, assuming the application essays are strong and demonstrate why they are interested in UW.
- Ohio State University: Ohio State values a holistic admissions process, where the high GPA and strong extracurricular profile will certainly help. The lack of standardized test scores is not a significant issue due to test-optional policies. The student’s chances here seem quite positive, especially with a compelling application.
- University of Michigan: UMich is the most selective on your list, especially for out-of-state students. The high GPA and good activities provide a strong foundation, but the medium rigor of the student’s schedule and the highly competitive applicant pool mean that admission is less certain. The student’s chances are probably the most competitive here, but with a strong application, admission is still possible.
Educated Guess on Admissions Outcomes
- Likely to be Admitted: University of Wisconsin, Ohio State University
- Competitive Chance: University of Maryland, Villanova University
- Most Competitive / Uncertain: University of Michigan
It’s important to remember that admissions decisions can be unpredictable and are influenced by factors beyond the applicant’s control, such as the overall strength of the applicant pool in any given year and the specific priorities of the admissions office. Therefore, while the student appears to have strong chances at most of these schools, the outcomes can vary. Applying to a range of schools, as this student is doing, is a wise strategy.
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Extreme likely is the sure thing category when @AustenNut is posting.
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Will you please clarify this part? Did you share the data and this came out? Or was this your educated guess considering what was said in Chat GPT?
@tamagotchi …I believe this is what ChatGPT gave for results…is that correct?
I pasted exactly the output of ChatGPT 4 (including its formatting).
This was the prompt I entered (I mostly cut and pasted from your post):
Tell me whether a student, from a Northeastern public high school with an unweighted GPA in the high 3.6’s, would be likely to get into the following colleges. The student is taking a medium rigor schedule. No Tests, Liberal Arts Major (psychology), Good activities and applications. Please make a guess about which schools the student would get accepted to.
U Maryland
Villanova
U Wisconsin
Ohio State
U Michigan
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Impressive
I like the category names it came up with. “Likely to be Admitted” / “Competitive Chance” / “Most Competitive / Uncertain”
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Does the student have any hooks? Undisclosed hooks are the most likely cause of underestimating odds.
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