“Extremely likely” was listed as 80-99%, not 100%.
I’m not going to continue this debate with you. All I said was that this was what @AustenNut gave. And I agree, I like the terminology also.
ETA…the ChatGPT terms are good too.
I’m only familiar with UMichigan’s admissions and I’d say rejection.
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no hooks
Ok I’m just gonna throw caution to the wind and say he gets into all of the schools on the list. I’m an optimist and will stay that way especially after a few glasses of wine.
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I’ll just chime in that while my S24 wasn’t interested in large publics, my impression is that most of the large publics are viewed as relatively predictable for non-merit-aid admissions, at least if you focus on the right residency status and school/major as appropriate (where unrestricted Liberal Arts and Sciences (“LAS”) admissions are usually the most easily predicted). This is because they apparently largely do not do anything like yield protect, and are happy to admit many OOS students only expecting to get a relatively small number to yield, because that is an important revenue source for them.
There are some exceptions, like the top UCs, Michigan, UVA, places like that where OOS basically looks more like a very selective private. And the most popular and competitive restricted majors/schools will play by their own rules. But unrestricted LAS outside of those few publics seems like precisely the sort of playing field in which relatively straightforward analysis, including stuff an AI can plausibly do, should be sufficient.
Edit: By the way, I am not sure there is a lot of true group think here, but I do think there is a useful corrective in the sense people will hit hard considering affordability early in the process and not late. I also think people here are really good at coming up with interesting options for affordable likelies and targets that kids and parents might not have been aware of otherwise. But all that is probably less relevant to a kid who wants the big public university experience and can comfortably afford OOS tuition. And probably it is worth remembering that not all kids need really creative solutions, some have straightforward cases with straightforward answers, and that is fine.
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It’s interesting to see how differently posters view the likelihood of acceptance at U Wisconsin. I’m from Ohio and consider it very selective and seeing the other posts (especially for some reason the AI categorization) really challenged my assumption so I investigated a bit and discovered the oos and in state acceptance rates are very different.
Spoiler alert: link to a student newspaper article with in state and oos acceptance rates
Btw, if the student was accepted to all of the schools on the list then their application wasn’t just good it was excellent.
edit: the numbers in the article are off, perhaps a confusion of yield and acceptance rate? Well, that was fun while it lasted. 
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We’re in MA and kids from our high school have great success at Madison. The acceptance rate has been around 60% the last 2-3 years. S22 has 4 friends that attend. I will say that the caliber of student applying there from our HS is quite high.
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Which may be the eventual take away from the thread given OP “supported” the applicant. If the student was accepted to all it would be reasonable to give some of the credit to OPs pro bono involvement.
It should not surprise anyone if a student supported by an “Education technology entrepreneur” has improved and uncommon results compared to the average student going it alone.
The suspense is killing me.
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It dropped to 43% last year, including 60% for instate students, 43% for OOS, 39% for Minnesotans, and 30% for internationals.
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Not sure where the student in the linked article took their admit rate numbers from, but here’s the link to the actual numbers (which yikkblue posted above for Class of 2027 (current first years.) Maybe a bit off topic, yet it’s important that parents/students/CC posters go directly to the source to get accurate admit rate info, whenever possible. And yes, student newspapers often have accurate info, who knows what happened here?!
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The machine learning algorithm would easily beat 95% of all college advising professionals.
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That makes a lot more sense.
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I agree, and I hope someone figures out a way to make sure students who don’t have good (or any) high school college counseling are aware of the help that AI can give them. I expect it’s not long before someone builds a fancy college list building front end (maybe it’s already out there…but as we saw above, ChatGPT in its current form is already better than many counselors.)
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Penn State is similar. I live close and I view it as very selective… but almost everyone I know applies for engineering or business.
I know the OP wants to avoid identifying info, whose is good. But “Liberal arts” covers a lot of ground. Some places have relatively lax admissions standards generally speaking, but their BFA program might be highly selective.
Other schools might have relatively easy admission to something like education, which will inflate their acceptance rate.
Just saying that school-wide acceptance rate can be misleading.
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The ideal company to build this is Naviance. They have grades, test scores, and even recommendation letters.
Another candidate is CommonApp, as they also have the essays.
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I have a vision that colleges might actually cooperate in creating a public AI-type program for people to get something like a 5-level classification. The colleges would not have to allow you to get all the way to automatic admissions (unless they wanted to), but the other four levels could be a version of Likely, Target, Reach, Unlikely.
My experience is some people see it as unthinkable that colleges would want to provide even that level of conditional transparency, but the Brits have something similar (not AI-based, it is basically just a spreadsheet formula, which works in their more standardized/less holistic system), and I think it ends up serving the purposes of the institutions.
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Maybe common app could do it, not sure Naviance has big enough share (and they are losing share AFAIK). I expect there would be charges of privacy issues.
Colleges are wary of anything that could be construed as collusion, not sure I see this happening. This also wouldn’t serve the interests of the selective schools, which I expect you were talking about? Doesn’t seem that students need to have the majority of the schools with 50%+ acceptance rates categorized for them.
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Thanks for the compliment, but this is not about the coaching.
It certainly wouldn’t have hurt. I purposefully didn’t use the word coaching, you did😀. I used your preferred term of “support”.
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