With the kind of luck I’ve been having, CC will close down this thread without the reveal! Inquiring minds need to know the final outcome here! lol
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I feel like I can’t meet expectations at this point!
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Maybe a prize is being purchased for the winning guess 
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AI for the win
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UMD - EA - admit
Villanova EA - admit
Wisconsin - EA - deferral and admit
Ohio State EA - admit
U Michigan EA - deferral and stil waiting!
UMD - I was not surprised because STEM seems to be hard, but not liberal arts majors. Even business seems to be easier than perceived.
Villanova - I was most surprised becasue no ED.
Wisconsin - I was 50/50 and think that was a good pull.
Ohio State - Improving reputation but US News silliness has made people think much more difficult than it is.
U Michigan - I put the odds similar to Chat GPT. Would be illogical I think.
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Thanks for sharing!
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While I hope this student was accepted at all the colleges to which they applied and/or are happy with the results they had - I question the utility of this thread.
Most students don’t have an unlimited budget that allows for applying to OOS schools that don’t meet full need and/or offer generous merit.
One student’s results don’t give us enough information to generalize for other students…even if they have ‘relatively similar’ stats/scores. LoRs, essays and majors will different, as is the ‘support’ each student has with their applications.
I’m not sure how much the advice given on CC has to do with rankings or group think. The general advice I’ve seen (over years and years) is actually pretty similar to the advice one might see for retirement planning: make your goals, set up a plan, realize that life has a way of laughing at plans, be flexible, don’t put all your eggs in one basket, unless you are part of the 0.1% - you’ll probably have to accept some trade-offs.
Is that too conservative/group think? Or just basically reality?
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The still pending Michigan result notwithstanding, I think I got very close and potentially could win . What is the prize? It was fun to play along.
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For me, a Test Optional student (who applied for aid) with more A’s than B’s, a reasonable schedule and good activities and applications can get into top 50 colleges. Secondly, US News rankings really should figure out and include a “difficulty of admission” component, as hard and flawed as it may be because it is needed for people to gauge admissions odds accurately (maybe my bias here). Finally, sometimes we confuse conservative and negative with our chance me’s. Our students really get into great places.
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Thank you for liking it.
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I don’t think anyone pushes the idea they can’t? The biggest bugaboo I see is (mostly) parents trying to make sure the student/family is taking finances into account which drive the process more than most really understand.
All three of my kids could have pretty easily been accepted to schools ranked higher than they applied to. But we weren’t willing to pay for those schools.
All three of my kids have friends accepted to amazing schools (in the Top 50) that those friends didn’t/won’t be attending because…drum roll…they can’t afford those schools.
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Many people still won’t be swayed by that. They see a 5% admit rate, and think their student has a chance, it’s human nature.
Yes, and for me that includes schools way farther down from the Top 50. It makes me sad that others don’t see it the same way and continue to be influenced by rankings, what their peers think, even what an anonymous person on CC or Reddit thinks. But elitism is alive and well here and elsewhere.
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The satisfaction of being above average in prognostication. 
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AND THE WINNER IS…
Chat GPT
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Any “difficulty of admission” rating would have to include multiple ratings for such things that matter at many schools:
- Early (ED, EA, early rolling) versus late (RD or late rolling) application.
- Different majors or divisions applied to.
- In-state or out-of-state for state schools.
Otherwise, it could result in a rating that is (for example) too optimistic for an RD out-of-state applicant to CS at Maryland but too pessimistic for a same stats EA in-state applicant to a non-limited-enrollment major at Maryland.
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As I already said above!! Great minds…. 
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