are we expecting any updates today?
I used the method in the Reddit reply (which made a lot of sense to me) and replaced the yield rate with 85%. It came out as 550 waitlist needed plus the approx 250 courtesy WL (legacy donors etc) plus extra buffer of 200 for international given this years climate, to reach the total initial waitlist of 1,000. Assuming initial yield of 2/3, we have 660 remaining. The first wave in May would release at least 300 (mostly courtesy WLs). This leaves it at 360. Apply another round of attrition of 80%, it’ll be around 290. This number would also include some international WLs.
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Here is my stab at it:
starting waitlist: 2000
Less:
Students dropping out accepted elsewhere: 600
Students accepted so far: 100
International students dropping out: 300
Students rejected from waitlist: 300
Leaves 700 on waitlist. Could be 200-300 or so international students deferring that now will be given offers from waitlist. So acceptance rate of what’s remaining would be 250/700 or 36%
Only 15% of class is international so that number seems high. That’s about 240 students. Also only a portion of them won’t/cant come. Say 25%. That’s 60 students.
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Those who aren’t showing up have likely already notified Harvard — hence Wave 1 and Wave 2 offers. At this point, there are probably only 20–30 spots left.
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That’s up to anyone’s guesses. Personally, I don’t believe the international situation has been reflected in the first two waves.
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15% will come close to 300. The hard question is how many having visa issues. It’ll be a wild guess for us outsiders.
realistically chances are low anyways lmao don’t stress or overthink about it
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Okay so you have 300 left on the waitlist. How many seats do you think they have to fill? In other words, how many of that 300 get offers?
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It totally depends on how many internationals are having visa issues, which I have no idea of. I think JackDavis is best informed on this question although it’ll be a rough guess as well.
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From a local forum:
“From a friend who manages data for a college: they are adding an admissions code so they can track all the students who are having to defer due to visa issues.”
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A majority of all south asian students will have issues. There are no appointments currently, only ones that are showing are for biometrics. And to even schedule one you’ll be risking getting scammed by those who already took spots up with bots.
Not to mention they just flat out deny people, even stating parts of rules that don’t exist.
Is it limited to India or may be happening to other countries as well (like east Asia, Europe)? I doubt there are more than 19 Harvard admits from India.
Typo: …more than 10…
There are definitely more. Around 800 students are from India (whole school not just harvard college).
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What do you think all those students will do if they can’t get their visas in time? Assuming everything g worked properly, how long would getting a visa normally be expected to take? Will Harvard allow them to all do a one year deferment? They could still be guaranteed to attend the next year? If they don’t defer, would they lose their payment for tuition and housing, etc. if they pay but don’t show up ? So many confusing logistics.
There are 31 undergrads from India. Including all of South Asia, there are 61. So for easy math, let’s say they accepted 15 this year. Even if all 15 have visa issues, they can easily pull 15 internationals without visa issues from the wait-list and offer the students with visa problems guaranteed admission to next year’s class. They will not be pulling American students off to fill those spots IMO. They will not use the WL to cover upperclassmen with visa issues, and students from grad and professional schools with visa issues are something that won’t impact undergrad admissions
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This is why it’s important to know whether the visa issues are limited to South Asians. It it’s more widely applied, the waitlist has to come from domestics.
From what I know the same thing is happening in china. My friend’s brother couldn’t get a appointment for his visa at all due to the backlog.
Although yes a small number of people, many from other countries have been facing the same issue. The wait list is going on for the sole reason if international students cannot attend or do not attend. The HIO has been contacted by numerous first-year international students to defer enrollment, and a small few have decided to make plans to continue their education at places like Cambridge instead.