Since you’re getting quite a list of recommendations, I’ve gone ahead and sorted most of them by my guesses as to what your kid’s chances might be. Additionally, schools in the low probability category are there because the odds are lower, but I do think your kid would have a legitimate shot at any of the schools on this list. The schools in bold are those that I added in this particular post.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
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Ithaca (NY): About 4600 undergrads
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Keene State
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Suffolk
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U. of Hartford
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Virginia Commonwealth
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Wheaton (MA)
Likely (60-79%)
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Allegheny (PA )
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Bard (NY)
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Hampshire (MA)
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Muhlenberg (PA )
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Sarah Lawrence (NY)
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SUNY Albany (NY)
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SUNY New Paltz (NY)
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The College of New Jersey: About 7k undergrads
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U. of Massachusetts - Amherst
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U. of Vermont
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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American (D.C.)
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Clark (MA)
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Connecticut College
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Gettysburg (PA )
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Oberlin (OH)
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Fordham (NY)
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U. of Pittsburgh (PA ) - it has rolling admissions so if your kid applies early (like August/September), it can potentially turn into a sure thing early on
Lower Probability (20-39%)
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Brandeis (MA)
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Dickinson (PA )
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Lehigh (PA )
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Skidmore (NY)
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Trinity (CT)
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U. of Rochester (NY) – closer to toss-up
Low Probability (less than 20%)
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Tufts (MA)
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Vassar (NY)
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Wesleyan (CT)
ETA: A caveat here is that for schools that say they meet 100% of need but are not need-blind. If a school costs $85k and Family A can pay $50k and Family B can pay $15k, and the families have similarly strong kids, Family A is usually going to get the nod. The more need a family has, the lower the chances at a meet-need school that is not need blind, but that does not mean the chances are impossible, but something to definitely be aware of.
ETA2: Added Pitt, Allegheny & Gettysburg & Trinity