So you are saying the cutoff is deduced by parents on here from evidence from counselors etc.,then the official cutoff announcement comes out in sept.?
snicks1234- Yes, from what I’ve heard, the commended cut-off is deduced in April based on the information counsellors and home-schooling parents receive bc of the NM verification procedures. Parents/students usually report their cut-off scores on this website and by word of mouth, thus the commended cut-off can be approximated (although it could be later this year based on how this year has been). There is not a way to accurately guess the NMSF from these procedures. The NMSF official announcement comes in September. Those verified, but not NMSF, become commended. I believe they receive commended letters afterward, but I am new to this as well so I’m sure someone can verify my post or correct me if I’m wrong.
My4sons-Thank you.
I looked at some old threads, and last year someone got lucky when they called NM. The person that answered the phone told her the commended cutoff. That was on April 7th.
Wow @rb681000 – good sleuthing! Maybe a few of us can try calling soon and see what happens. Thanks much!
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/
Will post again- many of you are asking questions that are answered in the CC National Merit forum.
I just called the NMSC. Commended this year is a 209.
That’s up by 7 from last year correct?
Hope eminem99 isn 't pulling our leg.Or maybe hope he is.That’s up seven from last years 202,unless I’m mistaken.Stands to reason the state cutoffs for nmsf will go up also.
I’m not haha, the guy I spoke to also said that they mailed out letters to high schools of the names of people who qualified for the national merit competition this year.
I was shocked when I heard he said 209, considering that SI percentile is in the 99 range this year , whereas in previous years the commended cutoff hovered in the 96-97 percentiles. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
@snicks1234 Yes, up 7 if eminem99’s information is accurate. Most state NMSF cutoffs will increase, but the changes will be smaller and smaller as you reach states with higher cutoffs. For states with the highest cutoffs such as New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts, the NMSF cutoffs will likely decline. There are different pressures on the two ends of the spectrum. 650-700 scores, for example, were easier to obtain this year, but 770-800 (77-80) scores disappeared, of course, and mid-700 scores were about the same year-to-year based on the concordances.
@Eminem99 Percentile scores are not accurate this year. They reflect a study group rather than data for all students. The percentile definition also changed from last year.
so,what do you think might happen in florida who was at 214 last year?Go up?By how many if we may speculate?
It appears scores did drop off after 218 esp due to lower reading scores (frederick douglass passage 
). Our school which produces lot of NMSFs have not that many above 218, probably around 7-9 which is consistent with our record.
I’d like to hear additional confirmation that 209 is indeed the cutoff. Compass had predicted 207. I fear that means their Florida prediction of 215 might be off as well and that we will see 217 (the high end of their spread) which would be very disappointing for us. With a 216, DS has been pretty confident that he was going to end up making NMSF or missing it by 1 point. 
@delilahxc I’m hearing you.Course commended means a child is in the top 50,000 test takers out of 1.7 million juniors.I would imagine admissions officials at colleges give that a lot of weight.
I posted and received the following response from Art at Compass Education Group:
Hi Art,
I saw a report earlier today that the NMSC has reported that the Commended Score will be 209 for the class of 2017. Although 2 points above your projected level of 207, it still falls within your estimated range of 204-210. Assuming that this information is correct, does this necessarily indicate that scores for individual states will generally run on the higher sides of your projections? Specifically, do you think that a Commended score of 209 changes your projected range for California, i.e., 218-221?
Reply
Art Sawyer says:
April 5, 2016 at 12:08 pm
PicoLA,
Thanks for the heads-up. NMSC usually doesn’t officially announce the Commended cutoff this early, although they’ve sometimes given this information out to students over the phone. So far I have only seen one student confirmation, but it certainly sounds reasonable. This would impact states that typically have NMSF cutoffs at or close to the NMSF cutoffs (e.g. West Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, etc.). The impact of Commended coming in 2 points above estimate is likely to be more muted by the time you reach CA’s range of 218-221. I still like my “most likely” estimate of 220. My range of 218-221 can probably be narrowed to 219-221. I see nothing that makes me believe that it can go to 222. Once we see additional confirmation of the Commended cutoff, I’ll revisit and refine our estimates for all states.
Here’s the link to the Compass projections for the class of 2017:
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
He’ll be okay either way. He wants to go to UNF. We were just really hoping for Florida Incentive Scholarship so that he could save his 529 for grad school
I just know it’s going to haunt him a bit if he misses by a point since he did not - despite my strong recommendations - test prep at all. He didn’t think he needed to. Sometimes a kid just has to learn a lesson the hard way But this one is going to be rough.
Potentially. Naturally, we still don’t know anything for certain.
@snicks1234 To be honest, commended is not a huge boost in admissions, as SAT and ACT scores are weighted much more heavily than PSAT scores. The real boost would be being a semi-finalist and qualifying for the scholarships that come with it.