While a 209 cutoff does work with the preliminary concordance tables, it seems on the “high” side. Not sure how CB i is going to spin their national and user percentiles because 209 is way into the 99th % according to CB, although we all knew those #s were off. Going to be some very unhappy people out there.
A 223 could be 3 wrong in the entire test. That would be ridiculous.
@suzyQ7…how many wrong with a 222? I am worried we are going to miss it in Texas by 1 point. We are holding with a 221.
@Pickmen – Yes I agree - when the real percentiles come out it (concordance table I believe are to be adjusted in a few months & in Sept. more facts for each state will be known ), it will certainly be a day of truth and show how CB misled a lot of people - most like to try to stem the tide of students switching to the ACT. Will be interesting to see how the new March/June SAT scores play out also.
@CA1543 thanks. Still pretty shocked at the cutoff but hope it’s not higher. Off topic, like many have reported here, D is getting lots of flyers from all top colleges but she says she checked the box that CB was not authorized to release her name. Some of these letters reference her “incredible academic accomplishments” but how would they know? She did take the Oct SAT and did pretty well, but these letters are alluding to the SATs. Is it all marketing? I mean how do they even get her name??? Do the high schools sell this info???
When Testmasters posted their update in February, they changed their Texas prediction to 219, and their commended prediction to 210. I’m thinking maybe Testmasters just might be pretty good at this. I wish they would update the rest of the states on their chart.
@Pickmen That ship has sailed. There are already unhappy people out there and that has not affected CB in the least. They have their customers by the B**ls so they can do what they want.
MANY MANY people on this board did not know (or believe) that the percentiles were off, they didn’t think the CB would ** risk their reputation ** by publishing blatantly incorrect percentiles. But they did, and it won’t be on the news. The internet is so full of information that its almost easier to lie these days than back when a press release was all that went out.
Sorry - meant to say “NOT alluding to her SATs”
@suzQ7 Based on the score conversions in Understanding Scores, a student could get as many as 6 wrong on the Wednesday Oct 14 form and 8 wrong on the Oct 28 form and still end up with a 223. For example, a 740 ERW on Oct 28 could be 3 wrong on Reading and 3 wrong on Writing. A 750 Math could be 2 wrong (one of the Math questions was thrown out that day). That doesn’t mean that all students who got 6-8 wrong got 223, but it is possible.
@rb681000 Agreed. Testmasters wins the prize.
Whatever.It is what it is.I would choose to think the best of CB and just assume that without actual data to back up their tables they were just wrong and not devious.After all,they can’t know ahead of time how students will do with no data from years past to extrapolate.Obviously,they did better at the low end of 99% than even CB could know.
Hi Art,
We are in Texas with 221 SI score for Class of 2017. Just heard the NMSC score to be a 209. Do you think Texas will go above a 221?
Reply
Art Sawyer says:
April 5, 2016 at 2:05 pm
Teresa,
I think 221 comes in safely above the Texas cutoff — even being cautious. Testmasters provided some useful data from the Houston area that helps establish a cap for Texas scores. Unlikely that Texas cutoff would even get to 220.
That is for all the Texas people out there.
@snicks1234 Sorry- that is not true. Its basic statistics - they had the ACTUAL test so can easily calculate the percentiles of the ACTUAL students who took the test. For commended, they could have given that to us right away. Its simply sorting all the scores in Selection Index order (largest to smallest) and stopping at record #50,000. There is the commended cutoff. The CB is being deceptive. You can choose to believe what you like.
@Pickmen I believe that the CB releases information to National Merit and a few specific entities like the Telluride Association, even if you don’t check off the general release box. So maybe that’s the conduit?
@TestRekt I will point you to this, which shows that on the Oct 14th test:
a perfect math (38 score X 2 = 76 SI) plus
a perfect reading (38 score X 2 = 76 SI) plus
3 x in Writing & Language (35 score x 2 =**70 SI ** ) = a 222 SI. So, in that case 3x would not make the cutoff.
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
Most kids took the Oct 14th form. The CB made the writing/language section so easy, that you are completely out of the water if you screwed up even 2 or 3 on that section. If you screw up 3 on math, you still get a ** 75 SI **. That’s a difference of 5 selection index points for getting 2 wrong on writing vs. 3X on math. Ridiculous.
I called NM and verified the commended cutoff is 209. The letters were sent today.
@suzyQ I’m hearing you.I know there are going to be some disappointed kids either way and really thats where my sympathy lands.My S acts like he is unconcerned,but I’m sure he would be proud if he made nmsf or nmf.We have florida pre-paid,but would like to use that for graduate school if possible.Then,you want your child to be matched well with their choice of college so there are a lot of unkowns at this stage.
unknowns.lol
I’ve learned so much about the process from everyone here so a quick thank you to all.