While we’re waiting, we can make collectively some fairly safe observations:
– If you scored SI 225 or higher, regardless of your state (NJ, DC, confusion, or bliss), you’re in as a NMSF. Congratulations!
– Given the scoring method, the actual PSAT cutoff for many states will be an odd number (as in odd/even, not bizarre or weird, though that may be a valid conclusion).
– The trend will be for higher, not lower, cutoff scores (yes, I’m disappointed too, but have to be realistic).
– Compass seems to provide the best estimated scores, but you should look more to the ranges than the actual predicted score.
– Consult the CC here for the earliest news of scores; it will become pretty clear by September 15 (or earlier) where most cutoff scores will lie.
There are fewer students on the odd number PSAT scores - so it makes for an easier (cleaner) cutoff since states get allocated a set limited amount of NMSFs and I think they come as close to it as possible but should not eliminate some students with the same score (though we have speculated a bit about hat possibility).
@VABogart this comment" The trend will be for higher, not lower, cutoff scores (yes, I’m disappointed too, but have to be realistic)." – I am not sure is fair for all states - at the top scoring states I think as Art at Compass and others have suggested, the cutoffs should come down a bit. Where the point of inflection is is more unclear - seems states like Texas at 219 perhaps.
Projections were made from a state’s cutoff for the class of 2016. For states that have a lot variation in cut-off scores like Florida’s 214,211,214, last year’s cut-off may not be a good indicator of this year’s cut-off.
From what I have seen Testmaster’s prediction for Texas is the only one made from actual 2015 PSAT test results.
Sorry, I wasn’t clear on score trends. I didn’t mean scores from this year versus scores from last year. I meant that the early trends/predictions on PSAT cutoffs (from such websites as PrepScholar and Testmasters) are likely on the low end and that the more recently predicted higher scores (by Compass, and Testmasters with respect to TX) seem to be the more likely score ranges.
For instance, PrepScholar predicts Virginia’s cutoff at 217 and Testmasters at 218, while Compass predicts Virginia’s cutoff at 219. That is still below last year’s cutoff of 222. Because of the sawtooth pattern (see CA1543’s post above), and based on the scores reported to me by S’s high school, I think Virginia’s PSAT cutoff may be 221 (S has 218, which I don’t think will make the cut). Virginia also tends to be two points higher than Texas, so if Testmasters is correct with TX at 219, then VA’s cutoff may be 221. Hope I’m wrong, though. Would love to see S squeeze in with a 218. Regardless, we’re so proud of him attaining commended status!
@nutmeg_shippy@flatKansas and anyone else interested in OU, if your DC don’t make semi-finalist, the OU scholarship is open to commended students on a competitive basis.
When dd initially met with her OU college rep at a college fair her sophomore year - DD told her that she planned to be National Merit, the rep replied that OU offers some very good scholarships for student that don’t make NM too. I’m thinking that she might have been referring to competitive scholarships for commended students.
Would a 220 SI be good enough for semifinalist in Maryland? Also, to confirm your scores, does it have to be the new SAT? Or can it be the old one? Thanks!
It can be the old one as long as it was taken within a set window (I think no earlier than Jan. 2015 but you should verify that with NMSC). They have not released confirmation score minimums yet although for the old exam it was something like 1960 so hopefully won’t change much this year if at all. Again, contact NMSC.
Here’s a link to the best set of projections. Per CompassPrep a 220 is right on the dot, although Art recommends looking at the range instead of focusing on a specific point estimate:
Does anyone know whether the CB has released information on the total number of juniors by state who took the PSAT last Fall? More specifically, does anyone know whether the number of juniors taking the test in California changed much from the prior year?
