For those hoping that the scores won’t hit the very highest end of Art’s range (like Illinois . . .), Florida and Alabama appear to be at least one point below his highest projections for these two states . . . .
Again, on the higher side of Art’s predictions.
We only know Fl is <=217 we don’t know the actual cutoff
Any other NY’ers out there???
Fingers crossed that the 215 in Alabama is accurate. That is our number on the nose.
Interesting that a good many of the numbers we have would allow for states to end up with an odd-numbered cutoff. That makes me happy.
So correct me if I am wrong, but there are 15,000 Finalists who get narrowed down to the 8,000 with scholarships, but if you are a part of the 15,000, you get the NMF scholarships a college might offer?
@Soccer1235 Yes - the only difference between a National Merit Finalist and a National Merit Scholar is the $2500 official National Merit scholarship. To colleges, they are the same for all intents and purposes. In addition, you don’t find out you are a Scholar until decisions are coming back. I got my scholarship letter the same day I got two waitlists and a rejection. Made it hurt a little less. 
It’s more like there are fifteen thousand that could ( if they choose colleges with automatic tuition discounts for finalists) get the large scholarships offered by the universities in the program, but instead about 7,000 choose not to go to those schoschools ( or were not accepted at those schools)
The point being that if you’re a semi-finalist it’s in your hands to choose schools that offer large scholarships.
I believe that Illinois changed from the ACT to the SAT being their primary test this year in the school system. Thus, the pool of students in Illinois taking the SAT would be a lot larger than normal which could account for the higher score range.
Ah ok and congratulations! That’s a better chance for those huge scholarships some colleges offer for NMF; I was worried that you would have to be a part of the 8k
@aptrail there can be a significant impact when that happens (switching mandated tests). But that announcement was made after PSAT 2015. Late 2015 or early 2016, I thought.
Art posted this:
Update 8/29 5:10PM EDT Alabama student Mel reported SF at 215. IL cutoff confirmed as 219 from a student’s counselor via College Confidential (CC). This is the first state where a cut-off has been confirmed and falls at the high end of my estimated range. CC student in IA reports 216 as SF. CC student in OK reports that 215 is SF. Kansas student with 214 reported that he was not SF. Tennessee student with 218 confirmed as SF from counselor. Student in FL with 217 got SF confirmation from counselor. Homeschooler in NY reported in as Semifinalist at 221. An Ohio student with 217 reported SF status. Summary:
AL <=215
FL <=217
KS >214
KY <=215 (?)
IA <=216
IL = 219 (according to a student’s counselor)
NY <=221
OK <=215
TN <=218
TX <=221
I expect the IL, NY, and TX cutoffs to all be lower than the scores reported so far, so students should not be discouraged. The FL score takes my highest estimate of 218 off the table. The KS score means that the state cutoff is above my low end estimate of 214."
But I am confused - he lists IL as a state where he expects scores to be lower than posted. We thought 219 was the cut off though. Would love him to be right though an about NY & TX being lower too.
@CA1543 He wrote that text at the bottom earlier today and hasn’t corrected it.
@aptrail I don’t believe that is true. I believe that it is happening next year. I first heard of the switch in Dec. at a presentation at school. Also in December, it was reported that ACT was protesting the decision. Those articles indicated that the decision was made in November.
At the December meeting, there was concern about state funding for the test. Our district decided to offer the ACT whether the state paid for it or the district would have to.
I was not aware of this pending change when my son took the PSAT in October, and I don’t believe that anyone else was, either.
This had no effect on the number of PSAT takers this year, so scores might go even higher next year.
Art’s note about expecting lower cut offs in IL, NY, & TX was an earlier edit, before the IL cutoff was known to be 219.
Thanks for the clarification.
Thanks for correcting my error. I thought it went into effect last year.
Thanks for clarification re Art’s comment – sadly seems false hopes.
NC <= 218 from the other thread.