<p>“The chief minister of the euro area refused to rule out similar levies elsewhere;”</p>
<p>[The</a> great EU bank robbery: British taxpayers to bail out victims of outrageous raid | Mail Online](<a href=“Cyprus bailout: British taxpayers to bail out victims of outrageous raid | Daily Mail Online”>Cyprus bailout: British taxpayers to bail out victims of outrageous raid | Daily Mail Online)</p>
<p>Great link. </p>
<p>That tax policy is insane. </p>
<p>Germany is fighting a war without guns.</p>
<p>Green Monday, beautiful time of year in Cyprus. I lived there for 22 years. I have so many friends and they will be losing, some of them, a lot. But they don’t seem to be panicking. Listen, the people there are tough in their own way. Let’s just wait and see what happens. But things that happen to the littlest can affect everyone so it is good to pay attention.</p>
<p>I’d invest in Royal Caribbean, assuming it’s not a subsidiary. Carnival will take a big hit from the two recent mishaps.</p>
<p>The June S&P is down 19.25 points or 1.24% from the Friday night close. </p>
<p>If you have money in a Greek bank, how are you feeling right now?</p>
<p>Gold has reversed it’s gain so far.</p>
<p>Rivstein , Carnival sure has has a lot of bad news lately. A senator I believe just trashed Carnival. The company doesn’t pay income taxes because it is not an American company. Yet, it racks up million dollar bills using our coast guard .</p>
<p>Razorsharp , thanks for the update.</p>
<p>overseas: What were you doing in Cyprus for 22 years - are you Greek?</p>
<p>By the way, the english translation of the greek term for the first day of lent (Καθαρά Δευτέρα) is clean monday - Καθαρά means clean not green. The word for green is: πράσινο</p>
<p>Overseas, 22 years is a long time. Good luck to your friends.</p>
<p>I just don’t understand how the entire investment-trading complex (from industry down to mom-and-pop investors) continue to disregard the many studies showing the almost zero correlation between individual stock-picking and successful outcomes? Daniel Kahneman was likewise amused by the indignation investment professionals expressed toward the studies. I’d love to hear arguments from the participants of this thread who DON’T think picking stocks is akin to gambling.</p>
<p>I think Warren Buffett had already argued against that in the back of Graham’s book</p>
<p>I think it is gambling.</p>
<p>I think the vast majority of investors should invest in index funds unless they have knowledge of individual companies or industries. An investor can play around with a little money and gamble it on individual stock picks. A little gambling is not bad if it is affordable.</p>
<p>Started in 1982 by James Simons, Renaissance currently has more than $23 billion[3] in assets under management.[4] Since 1989, the company’s $5 billion Medallion Fund has averaged 35% annual returns after fees.[5][6] The Medallion Fund is one of the most successful hedge funds.[5]</p>
<p>What is Warren Buffet’s argument?</p>
<p>Just google warren buffet buy index funds…</p>
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<p>Let’s say that I bought stock in the company where I’ve worked since the early 1990s. It’s up about 17 or 18 times since then. That would be successful individual stock-picking, right? Now I think that most companies don’t perform this well so maybe those buying their own company stock don’t do so well or maybe lose money over the long term. Suppose that you do find a way to consistently beat the market though - wouldn’t you just keep using it until it no longer worked?</p>
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<p>Life is gambling. You might get hit by a meteor or airplane sleeping in your bed or you might have a car accident on your way to work or you might get swallowed up by a sinkhole. Eating a pizza is gambling - you don’t know much about the ingredients, where they came from, whether or not anyone in the production chain contaminated the product. But lots of people eat pizza everyday from a variety of producers and you don’t hear of people getting sick from pizza so you enjoy the slice without any worry.</p>
<p>Is buying a company a gamble? As a trader and investor, I’m looking for better than 50% odds of a successful outcome. So give me fundamental or technical analysis that gives me a better than 50% outcome and I’ll take a hard look at it. Oh, and it has to be relatively simple - simple enough so that I can understand it. And I may take some time to go over the company’s financial records, news reports and their competition and maybe even some bar conversations where their employees congregate to see if I want to give it a shot.</p>
<p>Is that gambling?</p>
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<p>Gambling involves chance that cannot be controlled. Investing involves skill that varies by individuals. If you buy stocks that grow dividends over time and have solid business models, you will make money. Dividends are real money.</p>
<p>Warren Buffett’s argument at the time was against the notion that he was successful because statistically there is always going to be people who are outliers (as in anything) not because of any innate skill but basically because of luck. This is true in any probability distribution (except uniform). His argument against this was all those who used what was fundamentally Ben Graham’s methods were became highly successful investors so it was not due to luck.</p>
<p>I wonder if TLT will jump tomorrow?</p>
<p>Interesting responses… First, some hedge funds or stock picks achieve better-than-average results. That’s only natural, but the bell curve does not necessarily indicate relationship between expertise/judgement and outcome. More often luck plays a very understated role. Second, as an individual trader, unless you have insider information (legal or otherwise), it IS a gamble to bet on your judgement since you have no information edge over the market. Just ask: for the picks that worked, could you conclusively state the reasons behind your “successes”.</p>
<p>As for Buffet’s argument, where’s the proof that value investors perform better than random picks or growth investors.</p>