<p>If treasury futures are up right now, I would gamble that tlt will be up tomorrow…</p>
<p>A lot can happen during the next 11 hours.</p>
<p>There was a paper written that discussed luck vs skill in investing and trading. You can find it on the internet </p>
<p>Differentiating Skill and Luck in Financial Markets With
Streaks
Andrew Mauboussin, Darien High School
Samuel Arbesman, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
February 3, 2011</p>
<p>The proof at the time that Buffett wrote that in the back of Graham’s book was that every single one of those investors that used Graham’s methods beat the market handily.</p>
<p>By the way the conclusion in the paper was that skill plays a role in outperformance of some investors and mutual funds.</p>
<p>Ok the nikkei is down 2 percent. I am happy.</p>
<p>Treasuries are rallying. </p>
<p>Svxy is going to be crushed tomorrow…</p>
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<p>One of the tenets of technical analysis is that the chart (price and volume) reflect public and insider knowledge though in a relatively blunt way.</p>
<p>Is industry expertise insider knowledge? Last summer, a coworker showed me a new product that I was unaware of, the Google Nexus 7. It was a new product category and Google did a minimum of marketing so the product was not well-known. He was gushing about the product and convinced me to buy one. It was fast, cheap, easy-to-use and much lighter and portable compared to the competition. I bought the stock based on the product. It has gone on to be a smash-hit and even resulted in its major competitor, Apple, coming out with a competing product, even though their founder said that such a product made no sense.</p>
<p>So did I have an information edge over the market?</p>
<p>AMD launched their AMD64 processors back around 2003 to compete with Intel’s Pentium 4 processors which were generally awful. AMD garnered considerable success and their stock went way up while Intel’s stock price went from a high of about $35 to a low of about $17 in the summer of 2006. In late 2005, there were leaked benchmarks of their upcoming Core 2 parts showing an unbelievable performance improvement over the previous parts and the competition. These were leaked by testers that had received early parts. Official benchmarks were released early spring for a summer product launch. The price of the stock fell into the product launch.</p>
<p>Anyone that knew anything about microprocessor hardware architectures could see that this thing was going to be a smash hit based on official presentations (Intel told everyone what they did to make the thing so fast at least a half-year before launch) and official benchmarks. But it took the market three or four months to realize this. The information was out there in public form for many months - it’s just that analysts didn’t know enough about microprocessors to understand the implications of the reports that came out.</p>
<p>Your basic market mispricing.</p>
<p>I had one of these things last week. One of my companies did a secondary of $300 million and the stock dropped about 3%. Notice of the secondary had been out for a while and the reason for the secondary was to build a pipeline where long-term contracts to pay for the pipeline had already been secured. The stock recovered in a few days. I have to wonder if traders and investors pay attention to all of the public documents that companies put out to keep them informed of what is happening.</p>
<p>Sure they do…they bought the stock down 3 percent. They are happy.
Edit…( actually is is 2 percent, right? )</p>
<p>The stock gapped…</p>
<p>Investors and traders weren’t selling the stock down. The underwriters did. That was a big order. The stock doesn’t trade much in a day. To take that much stock, buyers wanted a discount.</p>
<p>A few flippers sold for a loss when the stock didn’t hold. They were stopped out. Very little stock traded below the offering.</p>
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<p>Those that bought certainly were happy.</p>
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<p>I don’t think so.</p>
<p>$300 million is 10 million shares. Volume on Wednesday was 250K, Thursday, less than that, and 750K on Friday where it recovered. Even adding all three days, you get at most 12.5% of the number of shares offered.</p>
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<p>I’d have to look at the intraday charts to see that. Did you look at the intraday charts?</p>
<p>I looked at the daily…there is a gap…
Sorry intraday…</p>
<p>The stock was sold at 30.80 canadian dollars…probably a little over 30 US…</p>
<p>Some buyers of the secondary were not in for the long haul but most were looking at the chart.</p>
<p>I think the secondary was a success. </p>
<p>Most secondaries are discounted a little…</p>
<p>Most secondaries that I’ve seen tank the stock and leave it tanked for a while. That’s mainly because the reason for the secondary is “general corporate purposes”. This secondary should have been a success because it’s already paid for which is why I didn’t really pay any attention to the price move. I was a bit surprised to see it drop though.</p>
<p>It’s interesting that the US Dollar dropped the previous two trading sessions. I wonder if that was to soften the blow of this action.</p>
<p>I think the secondary was a success. The stock is not that liquid. The stock really trades under 200,000 shares a day. I think you need to discount the stock something for the lack of liquidity. And like you said, the stock is making its way back…</p>
<p>“It’s interesting that the US Dollar dropped the previous two trading sessions. I wonder if that was to soften the blow of this action.”</p>
<p>That I don’t know.</p>
<p>That link you posted where there can be more taxes on deposits In other areas is a negative. If it is clear this is just a Croatia issue, it will blow over. I think the odds the US would do this are close to absolute zero.</p>
<p>I have been thinking of diversifying as my position is triple what a normal position is for me. I’m going to look into HGT given that it has a ten percent yield. My guess is that the fundamentals aren’t as good. HGT was beaten down pretty hard and it’s in recovery mode - I’m hoping that their general business is still in good shape.</p>
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<p>That’s because we’re a country.</p>
<p>Europe is only pretending to be a union.</p>
<p>Current $USD is below the Wednesday close and the Wednesday and Thursday highs.</p>
<p>I would really check out hgt before I bought it. It may be on the comeback trail. I don’t know the company. I don’t know why, but the company’s revenues and profits took a tremendous hit. </p>
<p>Maybe that is already in the stock. I don’t know. </p>
<p>I think you are wealthy enough. A little diversification in that space would be ok. </p>
<p>I don’t know the natural gas industry well…</p>
<p>Maybe, you have friends that know natural gas?</p>
<p>[Euro</a>, Stocks as Cyprus Triggers Gold, Treasuries Rally - Bloomberg](<a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)</p>
<p>[Asian</a> Stocks Drop Most in Month on Cyprus Deposit Tax - Bloomberg](<a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)</p>
<p>There was a trader that bought a massive position in natural gas in spring 2005 or 2006 and the price went up to $15 and then he had to sell it and the price cratered and was in a bear market for a long time. Ng seems to be coming out of the bear now. I would have to go through a bunch of earnings reports to sort it out. Not enough time this week for that but I will get to it sooner or later.</p>
<p>Yeah…you have time.</p>
<p>You have a great stop imo. The stock shouldn’t break the secondary price.</p>
<p>Mexico has a 3% tax on cash deposits implemented 2008.</p>
<p>
<a href=“http://www.baja123.com/DEPOSITING_AND_WITHDRAWING_MONEY_IN_MEXICO/page_2313793.html[/url]”>http://www.baja123.com/DEPOSITING_AND_WITHDRAWING_MONEY_IN_MEXICO/page_2313793.html</a></p>