The residential real estate market is starting to turn around...

Parent Cafe
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<p>Many stocks have been on a tear the last 3 years…</p>

<p>I did buy some GM at the end of 2011…just mentioning this because I do have some winners once in awhile…(I didn’t buy 250,000 worth though…not even close). :(</p>

<p>“There are a lot of confusing signals out there”</p>

<p>Yes there are…</p>

<p>I don’t know for sure if people can really afford these prices…</p>

<p>People… Like to buy stuff that is a “luxury”.</p>

<p>For some people that might be a jet…or a 2nd house in Manhattan…or an IPad…relatively expensive clothes…or Starbucks Coffee…</p>

<p>I know somebody that doesn’t have a pot to p… In and he has to go to
Starbucks every day. That 3 dollar cup makes him feel good.</p>

<p>I played golf today…and it cost me $74…plus the $30 I lost on the
game…lol.</p>

<p>I don’t know how people can afford those green fees… Yet, some people
can afford a lot more. They belong to private clubs. I can afford the $74 …but I don’t feel good spending that money on golf. :slight_smile: </p>

<p>I am positive there were people a lot poorer than I am on that course today paying that $74. What are they doing on the golf course? </p>

<p>Life would be dull if everybody thought the way I do. :)</p>

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<p>Is it time to take profit on the stock market? It’s been pretty high.</p>

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<p>Nobody knows…</p>

<p>Nobody…</p>

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<p>Well, we trend-followers believe that the trend is your friend until the bitter, bitter end.</p>

<p>Still, looking at these charts for three years is pretty scary. My feeling for the past few years is that we’ve been in a cyclical bull market within a greater secular bear market. The previous secular bull market was 1982 to 2000 implying that the secular bear should run 16-20 years. Of course the central banks are doing the full-court press to keep the bull alive. Oil, gold and Asia are up on China’s easing tonight.</p>

<p>One of my gurus said to either be long or in cash - not the time to go short right now. I think that this will be another volatile and difficult to predict year. There are a fair number of potential external events, inflation is picking up (despite what the Fed says) and I can see unrest ahead of food, transportation and energy inflation surge - which may cause the Fed to change their ultra-easy stance.</p>

<p>So another year of staying on your toes.</p>

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<p>If gasoline prices hit $4 per gallon and look like they might stay there for more than a week, I will short the market immediately. Otherwise, I am thinking it will be best to sell in May and go away again. In short, I have no idea what to do.</p>

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<p>Yes, that is what I’ve been thinking, high gasoline prices is not going to help the economy. But the effect will be a few months later.</p>

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<p>In CA, gasoline prices are OVER $4.00 per gallon and home prices in my community of Coto de Caza are NOW around $200 s.f. for homes similar to mine. Still more than I paid in 2002 and, fortunately, it’s paid off.</p>

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<p>oil prices is peaked because the crisis in Iran, the price will fluctuate because of that. It should not totally related to the local economy.</p>

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<p>^ It does not hurt everybody’s pocket? It hurts mine and I stop spending.</p>

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<p>^^ sure it does, drg… but did I say it does not? It will have impact in the short terms, in the long term, the impact is not clear.</p>

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<p>Buy some shares in an oil company and let the dividends pay for your gasoline bill.</p>

<p>We heat with Natural Gas and I don’t even care about what we’re paying. I just look to see if they are two digits or three digits (they are two) and I marval at that. Our normal winter bills are $100 to $200 a month. This winter, they’ve been under $70/month. We’re not using much natural gas and the price is dirt cheap. We need NG - fired cars or electric cars with NG generators at home.</p>

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<p>I am glad to see large trucks slowly being converted to run on natural gas. I just wish there were more options for natural gas cars. Ethanol has turned out be a flop unfortunately.</p>

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<p>Progress is being made on the electric-car front - the main problem today is getting costs down and range up. There are city bus fleets that run on NG too. It appears that there is massive NG supply in the US and North America and that’s reflected in the price of NG today. We just haven’t been converting over to NG for energy. It would be nice if we could ship that excess NG to Japan. Their Nuclear plants are down which means that they have to run diesel generators for electricity which is relatively dirty and it means that they have to buy some of it from unstable areas of the world. It would be nice if we could export some of our excess production.</p>

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<p>^^ I’d be ecstatic if we could get the excess to those of us who are forced to use LP instead…</p>

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<p>I talked to an architect today and she said things are bad…but are improving slowly. She has more work now than she has had the prior 4 years put together.</p>

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<p>Home across from SIL finally sold and closed…new construction, orignally listed at 5.7 M sold for 4 M…was on market for 3 years…</p>

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<p>So…qdogpa…was there a profit om that house? What do you think?</p>

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<p>House actually settled for 3.65 million from a last list of 4 M,down from original 5.7…
I don’t think the builder lost money,but definitely didn’t make his usual profit…was an 8500 sf home with fully finished basement with 3000 sf of space</p>

<p>If i use $100 per sf for basement=300,000
And $400 per sf for 8500 sf home 3.4M</p>

<p>So price if not far off,though that does have profits built in the price of construction,and not sure what he paid for lot…</p>

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<p>That is a pretty big place…</p>

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<p>Carrying cost for three years… probably another half-million.</p>