Some include merit in their calc (usually the “lesser” schools - and some don’t. And by “lesser” I don’t mean not good but simply not as prominent in the lexicon of society or rank and wealth.
Hofstra does (not on your list) - and I know others do - where they have a table.
Willammette shows this at 3.9 unweighted - I put in a $100K SAI to make it quick.
So you know this is the floor. Then it’s will they give you need aid. If yes, it’s do they stack or you can’t have both til you get over $34K??
btw - there’s no assurance you get that merit aid - but it’s likely - because I can’t imagine too many willing to pay full pop for Willamette.
Some colleges’ NPCs don’t give any estimate for merit aid, even if a school does offer merit aid. Thus, that is one way that NPCs can be off.
Some NPCs will give an estimate for merit aid based off an internal (non-public) matrix of sorts, saying that you would be likely to receive $$ in merit aid. But then your kid might apply for a competitive scholarship at the school and, if selected, would get a bigger merit package, but that is not the kind of thing that could be automatically assumed.
Most colleges do not stack merit aid and need-based aid, but some do. Or some will replace need-based loans with merit aid and call it a day. This is on a school-by-school basis, so you will need to ask each school.
One other thing to think about is not just what the NPCs are spitting out and the percentage of domestic students accepted, but it’s also to reflect on the amount of aid your family will need from a college. Most private colleges that say they meet 100% of need are need-aware. Thus, if school Y costs $90,000 and Applicant A can pay $15,000 and Applicant B can pay $50,000, Applicant A is likely to have lower odds of admission if they were similarly strong candidates, even though both would qualify for need-based aid. It’s not to say that Applicant A would not be accepted, but their odds would probably be lower.
Since your family has gone through the process of determining domestic admit rates for a better sense of the odds (very cool, by the way), I thought it would be helpful to mention this other point should it be useful for your family’s circumstances.
Thanks. Seems like we’re talking about the Rumsfeldian “known unknown”. And practically speaking, the best we can do is set & accept a margin of error. So a college whose NPC is, say, $5k over our budget, we might want to include it anyway, just in case merit aid is given and stacked on top. And likewise, a college might have 50% admit rate, but accept the possibility that it may be lower that we may be a higher-need family than a student with similar qualifications.
That’s why you have that assured and affordable safety - which for you sounds like OSU - because if all else fails, you’ve got that!!! But given the size and WUE and personality, I’m still gonna remind you of Humboldt
Yes. Additionally, some schools may give more generous merit aid than anticipated (the demographic cliff of a drop in college students has started), and some schools will increase their merit aid offer if you have a competing offer or if it is getting closer to May 1 and they still need more students to commit. This thread offers some examples from earlier this year:
Update: we may still do a pre-read w/ Reed just to confirm it’s outside our price range (NPCs by me and ex say it is). With ED at Reed likely off the table, I think the best strategy now is RD at all/most/some of those on the current list and see what happens. None on our list offer a significant advantage in admission odds by going ED. Maybe EA at some if we can get our act in gear quickly…
You can still do Reed ED but might ask them, does my “need” mean my opinion or your opinion. If they say yours - meaning the NPC says $40K but you need it to be $25K, then you can invoke this:
“Making your college choice should be exciting, not uncertain. With Reed’s new Early Decision Aid Review, you and your family can receive an estimated need-based financial aid package by November 1—giving you clarity and confidence as you take this important step. If our offer doesn’t meet your need, we’ll move your application to Regular Decision with no penalty. We want every Reed applicant to make their decision with full knowledge of the resources available to them. Learn more about the benefits of applying Early Decision below.”
My one concern with Reed and CS is - the other year - people were saying the department had issues - so you might want to look further into that.
I think that, at many schools, there is a bit of a boost – even though it is true that most athletes and some other royally hooked applicants get in through the ED round. The numbers are too lopsided for the hooked squad to explain away all of the difference between ED and RD acceptance rates.
So is the ED advantage as large as the admit rates would indicate? Heavens, no. But I think at most schools, there is some advantage, however diminished.
(and some schools really stand out, like Tulane – their ED acceptance rate is about 5-6x the RD rate. Some big-name LACs are similar.)
At this stage of your research, you are probably familiar with Hamilton’s new computer science facility, which has been designed to be the best of its class.
That’s a great exit ramp. I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out. I’ll inquire and see what suffices as “if the offer does not meet your needs”.
And yes while the CS program may not be the most exciting at Reed its proximity carries a lot of weight vs taking two flights and a bus ride to some of the midwestern LACs. OTOH that distance could be a good thing to foster independence.
That statement is a pure indication that they need kids. And more and more are willing to give guidance it appears.
The consumer is in the driver’s seat at many of these schools.
Their domestic yield was 12.3%. And they don’t show how many were ED but RD is likely lower.
So that tells me - you call the shots!!! If you say you want to back out if the offer doesn’t suffice your needs, who are they to say no? If course, then they might reject you to help their stats knowing you won’t go - but that’s ok as you wouldn’t go anyway.
3.9 GPA and rigor could get him into any of these schools. If you were willing and able to do full pay, and really, really wanted to play the ED card somewhere, sure. But it doesn’t sound as if you are full pay, so no ED. You’re going to have to weigh fin aid/merit money offers. EA, sure, but no ED. None. No need, no advantage, and disingenuous on your part.
Everyone keeps asking about test scores. In light of the large number of straight A math students admitted to the UCs (test blind) who haven’t even mastered middle school math, at this point, in my opinion, without a high AP score or a high math SAT/ACT, math grades are meaningless, unless the student is coming from a selective or rigorous high school with known STEM rigor. But really, the game at many of the LACs is that they’re trying to admit the class that they want - and what they’ll want from a kid with a 3.9 GPA, and no test scores, and no other hook that they’re looking for, is probably going to be the ability to pay, even if they claim that’s not the case.
Your child’s GPA could potentially get them into any of these schools, and it sounds as if you need aid money, so I’d pare the list only of any schools that he is less interested in, that are also known to be stingy on fin aid and merit aid.
Acceptance wise, he’s going to do fine. I suspect that the fin aid and merit aid money is going to vary from school to school, and will help you make your decision.
I think it’s a mistake to rely on domestic acceptance rates to this degree when assessing reach/target/safety tiering.
Some of the most experienced admission officers I know have told me of their confidence in guessing test scores based on the rest of the application. It’s one reason why they feel comfortable with test optional policies. So if a student is applying to a school with a published median SAT of X opts not to submit, then it’s a good idea for the rest of their application to offer some kind of evidence they have performed at the level of X. Grades, letters of recommendation, contests, extracurriculars, personal statements and so forth should make that case. While omitting admit rate is risky when guessing acceptance chance tiers, if pressed to choose between only admit rates or only test scores, in some cases I would opt for test scores, particularly if it appears at least 50% of the students submitted and the scores quite high. It’s best to weigh everything, though.
Also, I noticed that you asked AI for the domestic admit rate for schools that don’t publish that and it apparently came back with something like “likely close to the overall.” I disagree. I think the international rates are almost always far lower, so you would want to adjust all the admit rates up if excluding international. Schools that aren’t transparent about the difference are probably even more likely to rely heavily on international to boost application counts, not less.
There are many great schools on your list. If your student liked Reed, that’s very informative, as it’s a very particular kind of school where fit matters a lot. It seems to have dropped off the list after your NPC estimates, but you might find a similar vibe at other schools known to send large numbers to PhD programs. Incidentally, even at the best known PhD feeder schools most students don’t pursue PhDs. However, the classroom atmosphere still probably skews towards students having extra passion for the subject itself.
You asked earlier about whether any reader has an opinion about your student’s chances at Carleton. I think they do have a reasonable chance. You asked about ED; I think I have seen ED help at Carleton, even outside athletics, which is not as large a fraction (~ 30%) of their admitted ED group as at some might guess. If your student liked the sample class at Reed, I think they would have a similar reaction at Carleton. All that said, the CS at Carleton will involve a bit more math than some schools on your list, and Carleton (like most LACs) does not have a business minor.
That’s bs. Who are you to judge what is or isn’t the right reason to apply for ED? Lots of different factors go into determining what you think is your #1 choice. It can be curriculum, reputation, location, money, it can be something as shallow as sports team or legacy. There is nothing disingenuous about arriving at your ED choice through whatever is an applicant and their family’s own formula.
I mean if they had no international applicants, this would be the rate. Or even higher to make up for having less applicants.
I think intl usually bring lower is true but moreso on the private than public schools. I looked at a few publics. Some had lower acceptance rates. Some higher.
Correct - but this assumes one is at the level from a gpa, test, rank, rigor pov. A 2.5 doesn’t have better odds at Carleton vs Grinnell because their admit rate is higher. But a 3.7 with correlating SAT might.
In some cases selection rate is driven by # of applicants and expected yield, too.
