This depends upon a lot of issues. BU says that it meets full need for all US citizens. How they calculate need is something I do not know in detail.
I do know that in general how universities meet need sometimes matches a family’s understanding of their own budget, and sometimes does not. If parents are divorced or separated, or own a small business or rental property, it is less likely that the NPC will be accurate and less likely that the actual offer will end up being affordable.
I am pretty sure that most students move temporarily to live either on campus or near campus when attending university. Of course finding housing or paying for a dorm plus a food plan adds an expense. I think that your stats assuming that you are in-state (and assuming that your stats stay about the same) would make merit aid likely for you at U.Mass. One daughter was offered merit based aid with a similar GPA. We will need to wait and see how you do on the SAT. Also, how you do junior year will matter for university admissions and merit aid.
Often in-state public universities are less expensive compared to private universities. However, this is not always true, and will often depend upon how much financial aid is offered.
For people who are concerned about the cost of education, one reason to avoid applying ED anywhere is to get offers in hand from multiple universities before the student decides where to go. This allows you to compare offers. In contrast, if you apply to one university ED, then you have agreed to attend if you are accepted. Strictly speaking the inability to afford a university is the one valid reason to reject an ED acceptance, but if you need aid then you should run the NPC before applying to see whether a school is likely to be affordable.
And this is exactly correct. Keep up the good work. There are lots of universities that are likely to be good options for a student with an unweighted high school GPA around about 3.87.