Should I EDII to WashU or gamble on Ivies [TX resident, 3.97 GPA, top 10% rank, 1580 SAT, engineering, <$20k, has portable AFROTC scholarship]

Applying to College Early Decision / Early Action
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Hi everyone, I’m looking for advice on a strategic admissions decision and would appreciate outside perspectives.

Background / Stats

  • High school senior from Texas

  • GPA: ~3.97 UW, ~110 W

  • SAT: 1580

  • Rank: top 10% at a competitive private school

  • Coursework: 13 APs + dual enrollment

  • Intended major: engineering (industrial/systems/mechanical depending on school)

ECs / Profile (high level):

  • National AFROTC Type 1 scholarship (full tuition anywhere)

  • Leadership roles in multiple orgs (student leadership, research/policy projects)

  • Founded and run a small business

  • Strong interest in engineering, defense, and public policy

  • Planning to commission through AFROTC regardless of school

School Situation

  • I have a guaranteed, free option at Texas A&M through AFROTC, which is my solid fallback.

  • If admitted to WashU and nowhere else, I would choose WashU over TAMU.

  • I’ve applied to several Ivies/top schools (HYPSM/Ivies tier). If admitted to one of those, I would choose it over WashU.

  • I’m considering EDII to WashU. WashU is appealing because:

    • It’s a top-tier private

    • EDII significantly boosts odds (I think)

    • They are the only top school on my list that would cover housing in addition to ROTC tuition, meaning essentially zero cost of attendance

The Dilemma

  • If I EDII to WashU and get in, I’m locked in and give up the chance at Ivies.

  • If I don’t EDII, I preserve the Ivy upside, but realistically risk striking out at the top private level and defaulting to TAMU.

  • I’m trying to weigh:

    • Higher-probability elite outcome (WashU EDII + full cost covered)

    • vs. lower-probability Ivy outcome with TAMU as a safety net

What I’m Trying to Optimize For

  • Long-term optionality post-ROTC (industry, grad school, policy/strategy roles)

  • Minimizing regret from either over-gambling or playing it too safe

  • Making a rational decision, not just chasing prestige

For people familiar with WashU, Ivies, or ROTC pathways:
Would you EDII to WashU in my situation, or hold out and roll the dice with TAMU as the fallback?

Thanks in advance.

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Which school do you like best? ED there. They are ALL prestigious. I value prestige more than most on CC but at some point it is almost splitting hairs. Where do you think you will be happiest?

Alternatively, flip a coin, heads = ivies, tails = wash u. If you are happy with the flip, that’s what you should do. If you are disappointed, then don’t ED there.

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What is your budget - a lot of risk if you get into a school and you can not afford it. If I understand correctly (and I could be wrong) there is no guarantee for ROTC funds at any of these schools or is my info wrong? If you are going ROTC, that culture should also be playing a big role in your school choice and list vs school prestige - where do you fit with your interests?

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I’ll stop you right here:

  • I’ve applied to several Ivies/top schools (HYPSM/Ivies tier). If admitted to one of those, I would choose it over WashU.

Assuming NPCs all work (you are talking about ROTC scholarships), then you shouldn’t ED to WashU. Why would you bind yourself to something that isn’t your favorite?

The one to have the discussion with is your parents - because they have to pay.

So if an NPC shows $20K and they have to pay $80K over four years and can’t or don’t want to, then you have to go to A&M. Throw in whatever # the NPC says and go with that.

If your need is high, housing may not be an issue at Ivy - it may be covered.

If your need is low, it’s a mathematical question.

Bottom line, to bind yourself somewhere that eliminates consideration at your favorite school makes zero sense to me.

Now, sometimes financials change that equation but then that school becomes your favorite.

btw - WU ED rate two years ago was 26% - but don’t forget that includes athletes, donor kids and more - and likely mostly from ED1 - so don’t assume that boost is as big as you think.

And many say - wow, (I’m using 23/24 CDS as it’s the only avai) - but of 1823 enrollees, 1158 were ED or 63% of the class. It is surely less - but i’m assuming 100% attendance of ED but it’s likely more like 95-98%.

So only 665 RD - there’s little chance.

But remember, to get those 665 kids, they admitted 2697 - so they admit more than 2x RD they do ED and less than 1 in 4 accepts the RD offer so they need to offer a lot.

Just to give some context from data they report.

For me, it’s not about optionality - because you can end up in the same grad school from anywhere - and yet you have 3 great possibilities - so I go for the $$. Now, you say WUSTL could be as inexpensive as A&M - so it makes sense to shoot for it. For the Ivies - what is the cost? If it’s $40K or $60K a year, I say heck no. But that assumes you have a budget.

When you get out, you are going to the Military - so I think your post college opportunities are not relevant here.

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this is a very personal question and not really based on pure logic/reasoning. the fact that you are hedging on losing out on Ivies makes me think you don’t really want to ED2 at WashU. For Engineering I am not sure it is clear you would get a better education at WashU than TAMU but sounds like you like the idea of being there (geography, culture, campus, etc.) but I also don’t think you’d necessarily get a better Engineering education at the Ivies over TAMU either - clearly prestige matters to you to some extent. I like the flip the coin idea from cinnamon - your gut reaction to the result will tell you what your emotions are telling you. whether that’s based on reason or not is a separate issue.

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I already applied to and won a scholarship directly from AFROTC HQ. They allow me to use that scholarship at any school as long as I participate in that school’s AFROTC detachment.

I’m fortunate enough that my parents CAN afford to pay the $20k in housing per year, but it would still be a noticeable financial strain. I won’t ask them to do that unless it is for HYPSM tier, and I know the ROI will be worth it.

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So the scholarship pays full tuition, even if it’s $70K a year?

You sort of answered it - you can’t afford $20K a year - so it’s not worth it - period, end of story.

How do you know this? You have zero way to know this and if you truly want to be an engineer (not some other role), it is likely untrue. You need ABET accreditation and the majors that interest you within engineering - some have less than others). And you are going to the military.

Engineering is very “equalized” - example, my son is a MechE who works for an aero company. He was based in Ogden Utah. He went to a run of the mill SEC school. He told me, he met a Columbia grad at trivia one night who worked for another aero company - and he was surprised that he made more.

My son works with Michigan, Case Western, UCI, U Wash and other grads and yet Akron, W Michigan, Utah, Buffalo and more - and they all come in at the same salary. When he turned down a top engineering school, he told me this is the case - rank is to sell magazines and for clicks.

He interned with two kids from the top Industrial School in the country (in some ranks). They were MechEs - also a top school. He got invited back a second summer. They didn’t. It’s about you……you will create your success.

If you told me you want to pivot to consulting or I Banking, etc. perhaps that’s true.

But you don’t “know” the ROI will be better. You’re making an assumption.

But I’m assuming you will have a military assignment after and your school isn’t going to matter.

Families can make a choice to strain - but they shouldn’t have to.

But - if they are going to strain, have you run the NPCs? Maybe your costs will be under $20K - i.e. they’ll cover it (the Ivy schools).

One other note - someone brought up on a different thread. Some schools don’t have the branch you want on campus - so they use another school’s - which then requires being off site, transport, etc. So that might be something to look at too - if any school is not on site.

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So, TAMU and WashU would both be a true full ride, housing included, whereas you’d have to pay for housing (does that mean room & board, including meal plan too?) at your more-preferred super-elite schools, correct?

How significant is that money to your family? It’s not cheap - my daughter’s former college, for example, is charging $23K this year for for room & board - four years of that almost hits six figures.

Without the cost differential, I’d lean toward not ED-ing to a school that isn’t your true top choice. But I could see the money factor potentially tipping the balance.

Since you’re committed to a military career, you needn’t split hairs about career opportunities at one school vs another; it’s all about the experience you want to have, and affordability.

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@aquapt Yes, free at WashU and TAMU. Cost for super elites would be room & board. I seriously doubt they will cover it because the NPC says ~$30k/year without knowing about the scholarship. I assume the real finaid office will realize this and make my family pay.

My family was already planning on paying about $20-30k/year for a state school before I got the scholarship. The scholarship allows me to attend a private school if admitted, but as far as ROI, @tsbna44 is probably correct in that it won’t make much of a difference.

As far as post college, I’ll be in the AF for 4 years. After that, I’m hoping to go to a top grad school for an MBA, and I’ve heard it can help grad school admissions chances if you went to a more prestigious undergrad.

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Where’d you hear that?

Two things matter for your MBA

  1. Work experience
  2. GMAT score - and some are waving

What you’re likely seeing is - those who get into higher ranked undergrads likely do better in the job market. Is that because they went to x school or because they are just better kids to begin with.

You have HYPSM admit level kids at most every flagship in the nation, most especially A&M. And yes, you have U of Kansas grads who have Harvard MBAs, etc.

Stanford shows their program has 269 US students (434 but 38% are international so it’s my math). They came from 94 schools. They don’t list but will they be weighted toward “higher rank” - likely - for reasons I noted above.

btw - sometimes the military will send you for a Masters before your deployment. My son’s friend went to Army and they put him in a data science masters after graduation.

So with the military background, you have zero issue here….because you’ve killed the work experience.

Now your GMAT score, I don’t know. How did you do on the SAT/ACT?

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OP, if you’re interested in defense, then Boeing in St. Louis isn’t a bad place to be. You could do internships there, which makes it convenient. I’d also say that if you’re really interested in engineering/defense/policy, then Johns Hopkins would be the alternative to me with their Applied Physics Lab. A good friend of mine is a WashU grad (electrical engineering), who’s been in the defense industry a while and is now at the APL.

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Most do internships during summer.

This student has ROTC to boot, on top of academics. Personally, location (for internship) wouldn’t be something I’d consider.

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I think this is an interesting question that is extremely personal. If your other potential options also included the same cost benefits as WashU, I’d be leaning towards recommending you roll that dice as it sounds like you might have some regret, and one shouldn’t ED without being 100% excited about the opportunity. The $20K swing is significant for your family and I honestly think you should think hard if it is truly worth it if you ARE admitted. As your initial path is already set with commission into the Air Force, I think a WashU full ride is pretty interesting. Taking a shot for an ivy just to pay $20K a year is something you should really ponder.

I’ll also note that you say ivys and “other top schools” if you have your heart set on a top engineering school that might sway me ever so slightly, as few of the ivys will move the needle at all in engineering - which is what my initial response focused on. If you’ll always wonder about MIT… that’s for you to figure out what kind of risk/regret personality you’re dealing with. I also wonder if you did any REA or ED1

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I don’t think you can expect a meaningful difference in elite-grad potential between WashU and and Ivy. For that matter, TAMU+ROTC will position you well, too.

There’s no right or wrong choice here. It depends how strong your relative preferences are, and how big a difference the cost savings at one of the full ride schools would make. A 80-100K “bonus” for attending WashU or TAMU is a pretty nice perk.

You can’t go wrong by “rolling the dice” - TAMU for free is a great fallback. You can’t go wrong by going all-in with WashU, since it’s the only free elite-private option. The weighting of the pros and cons is wholly subjective and up to you.

Congrats on a guaranteed great outcome, no matter how this goes!

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Are you from a military family? ROTC scholarship winners are expected to be leaders and set the example. It’s a fair time commitment. Some of your summers will be used by ROTC. I think TAMU ROTC programs are on another level.

It might help the discussion if you name the HYPSM schools.

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My first reaction is that engineering is an area where “prestige” really does not matter. Graduating from an ABET accredited university matters.

TAMU is a very good university. You can do very well with a degree in engineering from TAMU. Assuming very high grades, great internships (which you can get at any school we are talking about) and good work experience, plus strong references which would come from all of the above, if you do want to go for a master’s degree at some point you would have a shot at the top schools (MIT, Stanford) from any university that we are talking about. By the way, I do have a master’s degree from Stanford, so at least I did see where other grad students there came from, and the answer is “all over the place”.

ALL of the universities mentioned on this thread are very, very good for engineering. I am assuming that you have only applied to schools that are ABET accredited for your particular field of engineering (although for MIT and Stanford I am not sure that this would matter).

So TAMU is very good. The worst that could happen is that you attend a great university with a full ride ROTC scholarship. This is quite good for the “downside”.

Engineering is not an easy major. Top universities such as MIT are a LOT of work. Classes go fast. The competition is tough.

I got to visit WUSTL once, and liked it quite a bit. I found the students there to be intelligent and very well engaged (for example I got a lot of well thought out intelligent questions). It is a very good choice.

A 3.97 unweighted high school GPA plus 1580 SAT is competitive even for MIT and Stanford.

Studying at MIT has been compared to drinking water from a fire hose. Classes go fast. There is tons of homework. Exams are tough. Stanford is not much easier. I remember very well doing homework on Saturday afternoons at Stanford. Let’s suppose that you attended one of these two schools. Let’s suppose that you spend six hours on a sunny Saturday afternoon doing one homework problem. You get it done. It was a really tough one and you get it done. Do you feel that you just wasted six hours on a Saturday afternoon or are you thrilled that you were able to solve the problem?

If you would be thrilled that you could solve the problem, and do not mind spending six hours on a Saturday doing homework, then either do not apply ED2 anywhere, or apply ED2 wherever you want to apply ED2. You can’t go wrong.

If you would not want to spend Saturdays doing homework, then you might be better off at TAMU or WUSTL, although frankly neither of them is going to be easy either.

Also, if you do not apply ED2 at all, then you are letting the universities all decide whether you are a good fit for them. They get this right a lot (most of the time), which is part of the reason that they have such high graduation rates.

And I do not think that I have answered your question, nor that I should or could answer your question. Hopefully this has given you something to think about.

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I’m confused. You want to get an undergrad degree in engineering, then you will spend four years in the Air Force…and then you want to get an MBA? Is that accurate?

Since your first four year out of undergrad will be in the Air Force, where you will likely get some terrific job training and work, I’m not sure your undergrad choices really are all that different. Pick the one you like the best.

At this point since you are unsure, apply regular decision, not ED2…in my opinion.

And my business friends tell me that your work experience will be important when you apply for your MBA…more so than where you got your undergrad degree.

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Not an uncommon path in MBA programs. It’s been a while, but in my experience it was about the military part, not the school part, unless we’re talking the cadre from the Military academies.

I’m on the opposite side of the spectrum re valuing prestige than @cinnamon1212 and others here, even though I went to fancy places myself from Boarding School on. WashU for free beats your other options assuming you get in, IMHO. I don’t believe there is an outcome available to you at an Ivy that you can’t enjoy coming from WashU, and unless things have changed, coming from an Ivy won’t improve your chances of going to Wharton, Sloan or HBS over WashU. Plenty of WashU at HBS.
Easy call, to my mind.

Apologies, but I missed the engineering part. Where did you say you wanted to do that?

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Congrats on being such a great student. Seems like you’ve set up the perfect “game theory” question!

Personally, I’d swing for the fences!!! See all your RD options, all the finances, all the programs. Then make the best choice.

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