Yes so true. My son applied to 18 or 19 schools and was admitted to 5, WL at 3. I do think a lot of these schools are going to have a very busy May trying to get these numbers figured out.
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But if a kid is from CA, that kid can potentially apply to 9+36 schools in-state PLUS the 5.74 common app schools.
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This article is from a couple cycles back now, but I think it helps shed some light on what is happening:
Most applicants only apply to a few colleges, indeed only one is the most common single number.
However, the high volumes per applicant are concentrated in certain applicant groupsâlike independent private school kids, internationals, and kids who ED (which in theory one might hope would actually cut application volumes, but apparently it correlates with more). Also kids in the Northeast, kids receiving fee waivers, and kids with high test scores (again, you might have theorized test optional would imply a different effect, but I guess kids with high test scores may feel warranted in taking more reachy shots, something I have sort of picked up on in various online discussions).
Given all this, predictably the high-volume applicants are concentrating those applications among more selective, mostly private, colleges. So in 2021-22, applicants to colleges with an admit rate of under 20% actually submitted over 12 Common App applications per applicant in total, and I would guess that has kept going up.
So I think all this explains why it feels like kids are submitting a lot of applications in certain online circles, including CCâthe kinds of kids/families disproportionately represented in those online circles are more or less also the kinds of kids/families typically submitting a lot more applications.
Which makes sense because if you have a straightforward 1 to 5ish sort of list, maybe made up of mostly or entirely not-very-selective colleges that work for you for practical reasons including costâwhich describes an awful lot of college-bound kidsâthen you may have less need of the sorts of advice you can get here. Indeed, not always, but often, the guidance counselors at public high schools will be pretty good at helping their college-bound kids put together such lists.
Where things get tricky is if you want to go outside of a list like that, which often requires a lot of really individually-tailored investigation and strategizing. And then maybe fewer guidance counselors are really able to provide guidance in those cases. And for various reasons, such lists may naturally end up longer due to the uncertainty of various outcomes for a given set of basic credentials (including admissions but also merit and such).
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Right, like I said common app doesnât have all the app volume (maybe 70% or so). Students can apply to 60+ HBCUs with the click of a button by completing the common black college app too.
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If colleges were transparent on admissions criteria, families would not apply to so many schools. I have no tolerance for blaming students in a process where they are victims - did the institutional priority change this year? Tough for you. Did your high school fall out of favor, oh well. This year you donât need a test - now you do, but we wonât tell you. No hook - good luck! Iâve yet to meet one person who wants to apply to dozens of schools! Nor can many families afford to apply ED and be left with staggering bills. Universities are happy enough to receive application revenue for the increase in applicants. If they werenât they would get off the common app, or at least add a few required essays.
On a separate note, itâs not always easy to find out how to turn down an offer. For such schools Iâm assuming most donât spend the time to call, or dig around portals - plural - and instead wait until the deadline passes. And certainly there will be a lot of teenagers that let their inaction tell the school they are not interested. For those many cases, schools wonât know until after their deposit date - May 1, 15 or June 1 now.
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Compared to most college operating budgets, application fees are a drop in the bucket. I am not actually sure they typically do more than cover the costs of running the admissions office, and maybe not even that.
So my two cents is both highly competitive students AND highly selective colleges are âvictimsâ of the current system.
These colleges are not being artificially unpredictable to get more uncompetitive applications, they just have complex goals when it comes to assembling an overall enrolled class, and even they usually canât say in advance which of their competitive applicants they will want to admitâthey need to see the process unfold in committee. And they are starting to get more and more blunt about who is actually competitive, which is contrary to an interest in maximizing volumes. Same with reinstituting test submission requirements, they wouldnât be doing that if they just wanted as many applications as possible regardless of their competitiveness.
Moreover, they donât know who is going to yield when admitted! No one really sheds a tear over this, but we are at the part of the cycle where many competitive kids (including my S24) are themselves rejecting many great college admissions offers, and accepting only one. So again, I am not blaming the kids, but nor is it the fault of these colleges they need to get enough applications to get enough admits to get enough enrollees once a lot of their admits take other offers.
So there is all sorts of uncertainty on both sides. Which highly selective college will admit me? Which highly competitive applicants will accept our offer of admission? And we are trapped in a feedback cycle where rational behavior on both sides is leading to increasing application volumes and even more uncertainty on both sides.
There are known solutions to this, like matching systems (ala medical residencies, Questbridge, NYC high schools, and so on). Or, you can impose a much lower practical limit on applications, like in the UKâs UCAS system.
But as long as our system has no such matching feature, and such a high practical limit on applications per applicant, I am afraid we are going to keep spiraling up and up until most highly competitive kids are applying to 20+ highly selective colleges.
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It stands to reason that deposits are way down given that many students have yet to receive their financial aid offers due to the FAFSA debacle.
I do expect that yield off the wait list may be lower than normal because WL spots will be offered later than normal, and kids may be locked in mentally by then to the school they committed to. They may have already selected a roommate, gone through orientation, etc. `
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I think your point about lower waitlist yields makes a lot of sense.
One other observation: I didnât get the impression that the admissions folks I talked to were changing tactics this year due to FAFSA (beyond moving decision days). They simply acknowledged that deposit metrics werenât helpful and they were in wait and see mode like the rest of us.
Given all this FAFSA uncertainty, I wonder if there is a difference (from historical trends) between schools that are
- need- blind or offer lots of FA vs.
- schools that typically offer minimal FA.
Speaking to the deposits being way down.
Hypothesis being that schools who offer more FA (and therefore, have more FAFSA churning) are seeing more variability than schools known for minimal aid (and less FAFSA dependency).
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Schools that meet need are pretty much all CSS schools, though, so theyâre not particularly dependent on FAFSA. My son got all his packages from CSS schools with his acceptances.
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I completely agree with you. I wish it were like residency matching. It is much easier and more practical, and everybody just matches in one program. I remember when my husband was going through the match. It was just one stressful day. There was a post-match admission for the unfilled positions. This system is impractical for both parties and torturous for kids and families. There is so much unnecessary stress and waiting!
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A general question, do you think that more people will be admitted off the waitlist than in years prior, similar to what happened when COVID existed? And is submitting LOCIâs to waitlist schools closer to may first a bad thing? I know some schools donât read waitlist apps until may first, but what doesnât make sense to me is that they would be reading several thousand apps during the first few days of may and making waitlist offers soon after may first. Can anyone provide insight?
It is close to May 1, so I encourage you to submit a LOCI soon.
I am not sure what you mean by thisâŠAOs have already read all the apps of waitlisted students, sometimes multiple times. If and when they go to the waitlist it will usually be with a specific profile in mindâŠgender, full pay, major, etc. They may or may not fully read the apps (again) that match what they are looking for before extending an offer of admission.
Practically speaking, most waitlisted students are not going to get an offer of admission. They should focus on the school they deposited at, and forget about the waitlist school. In that scenario there shouldnât be stress or feeling like they are waiting. If they do receive an offer of admission at a school where they were waitlisted then they can evaluate what to do, at the time they actually are presented with the option/choice.
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If you havenât sent a LOCI, you should do that as soon as possible. After that, just forget about it and concentrate on the school where youâve made your commitment. If a waitlist call comes you can worry about it then - most kids never make it off the waitlist so it is best to put it on the back burner and give your time and attention to the school(s) that accepted you.
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Could someone here describe how a matching system would theoretically work for college apps? In this system, does each student get a max number of ranking slots or they could rank 200 schools if they wanted? Is there an app fee for every school ranked? Does the school see how high they were ranked? How binding is the match? How does financial aid and scholarships factor in?
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App fees are used to make sure the admissions office does not get thousands ofstudents who wanted to shoot their shot while submitting very lazy apps.
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So my understanding of systems like this is that the match has to be at least conditionally binding on both sides, sort of like an ED offer, in order for it to work on both sides. The top issue is then financial aid, particularly in a world with merit which might make the difference for some applicants.
And I could see that handled different ways, but one idea I have had is that applicants would have to provide a net price they were willing to payâand this could even be per college and not one for all colleges. And then the system would not establish a match unless the college was willing to offer that net price to the applicant. And applicants would have to make sure they were being realistic if they wanted to get a good match.
In terms of the number of applications and fees, I think in theory a single fee could cover a pretty large ranking list (20 or more), and then you could even let applicants pay additional fees to rank more if they really wanted to.
Another practical issue is things like interviews and supplemental and such. Personally I would urge colleges to minimize all that, and I think a system where there was some standard set of opt-in essays in addition to one main personal statement would make sense. Like, the college could say we will accept an additional why this college and/or community/diversity essay, and/or maybe a short video, and applicants could choose to include those things if they like. Maybe there could also be a provision for Zoom interviews, and there could be standard times when the applicant could agree to make themselves available and colleges could then sign up for interview slots. If there were not enough slots, the applicant could be informed and add slots, or choose the colleges they wanted to interview with.
All of that on the size of lists, fees, essays, interviews, and so on is just ideas, though. I think the critical thing is the first thing, a both-sides-binding system that still made it possible for applicants to specify they needed a certain net price in order to form a match.
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Thank you for entertaining this thought exercise! I have just an basic understanding of the med school match system - wondering what issues would arise. Would the application itself change much? Would this reduce work load on either sides? What incentive is there to use this system? Or how bad do things need to get? That seems to be what happened with the med school matching - the existing system got out of hand.
I agree that current financial aid and scholarship system doesnât align with the matching system. The current system is like a slow negotiation. It goes on longer if thereâs waitlist, appeals, etc. Even if price is not exactly stated in each step, itâs implicit. Matching would require an agreed upon price. Is that even possible? Does med school matching not have financial aid/scholarships considerations?
I only know the basics of the residency system so I am not sure if there is any bargaining over financial terms built into that system.
As expressed above, I personally feel like the current college app system is spiraling out of hand for at least certain colleges and certain applicants, but it is obviously a great question whether enough people on each side would agree with me about that!
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