100% know? - no one.
But kids think they do.
But - all schools have bad roomies, bad food, bad profs, etc.
But kids do have desires and you want them to hit so they feel good going in.
My kid goes to the 16th ranked of 17 admits. We went everywhere - prob 30+ schools including three of your four, one of which she applied to EA, got deferred like others, did her letter of continued interest and got in with the $25k. Her 4 or 5 friends all had the same except her now boyfriend who goes to Denver - he got in EA with $25k. Looking at the data I wonder if his gender caused that earlier acceptance ? No way to know - just wondering. The rest were females and all admitted with $$.
Why not Tufts? - it was on her original list of 109. We started big and culled down to 21 - so 88 came off.
No merit aid. I wasn’t going over $50k - personal preference. And I’m full pay. That took a nice chunk off.
The school my daughter attends was an early visit - and I knew on that visit no matter where she applied and got in, this is where she’s going.
Her process of a final four, two and one were laughable as I already knew 18 months earlier. Yep, she had rough times - bf separation early on. Yep she’s had bad (but mostly solid and amazing) profs , a bully roommate, and food she at first struggled with but now is ok.
But in her mind it was the right school. Others may have been as good or better. We’ll never know. As a star student at a lesser school she’s had great enrichment, even beyond Honors, so that’s been good for her confidence and exposure.
In reality, your statement is not wrong.
We just try to strengthen odds. Many schools have high first to second year retention rates - a lot are based on experience and a lot are based on finances or lack thereof at those that are lower.
In the end, your daughter (not you but in counsel with you) has to take whatever info you deem relevant - from here or other places or just on her own - and make the best decision for her and not look back.
And like everyone else - hope it ends up with a great education and a lifetime of great memories.
I mean go back 37 years, I attended college sight unseen, across the country. While looking back I’d have chosen differently because I feel bad I spent so much of my dad’s money (he never gripes), I do have, overall, great memories that I cherish and one lifelong friend.
So it’s definitely not an exact science !!